星湖科技：氨基酸供需共振，加码合成生物

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of RMB 7.56 [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in the amino acid industry, with annual production capacities of 800,000 tons for lysine and 268,000 tons for threonine, ranking second globally in both categories [3][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for amino acids as a substitute for soybean meal, driven by food security concerns and the potential cost reduction from the adoption of genetically modified corn [3][8] - The company is expanding into synthetic biology, with plans to produce small-scale amino acids and bio-based nylon, which could drive future growth [8][33] - The integration of Yipin Bio is showing positive results, and the company's high dividend payout ratio of 93% in 2023, along with synergies from its parent group, could lead to a revaluation of the company [8][9] Industry and Market Dynamics - The amino acid industry is experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, with leading companies gaining stronger pricing power [4] - The demand for amino acids is expected to grow due to the substitution of soybean meal in animal feed, supported by the recovery in pig prices and export demand [3][8] - The supply side has seen consolidation, with some capacity exiting the market, leading to an optimized industry structure [3] - The company's lysine and threonine production capacities are among the largest globally, giving it significant scale and cost advantages [3][8] Synthetic Biology and New Growth Opportunities - The company is investing in synthetic biology, with plans to build a 600,000-ton corn deep processing production line and a cogeneration project in Xinjiang, aiming to produce small-scale amino acids such as valine, isoleucine, tryptophan, and arginine [9][33] - The company is also developing a full industrial chain for bio-based nylon, including the production of 1,5-pentanediamine (PDA) and PA56, with a planned annual capacity of 10,000 tons [9][33] - The company's focus on synthetic biology could open up new growth opportunities, particularly in small-scale amino acids and bio-based materials [33][35] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue and net profit are expected to grow, with projected net profits of RMB 1.05 billion, RMB 1.29 billion, and RMB 1.46 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [8] - The company's EPS is projected to be RMB 0.63, RMB 0.78, and RMB 0.88 for 2024-2026, respectively [8] - The company's high dividend payout ratio of 93% in 2023 reflects its commitment to shareholder returns [9][14] Competitive Advantages - The company has significant scale and cost advantages in the production of lysine and threonine, with global rankings of second in both categories [3][8] - The company's production bases are located in major corn-producing regions in China, ensuring stable and cost-effective raw material supply [57][77] - The company's integration with Yipin Bio has strengthened its position in the amino acid market, with improved operational efficiency and profitability [9][61] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The adoption of genetically modified corn could further reduce production costs for amino acids, enhancing their competitiveness as a substitute for soybean meal [13][69] - The global demand for amino acids is expected to grow, driven by the increasing use of amino acids in animal feed and the potential for cost reductions through synthetic biology [8][33] - The company's focus on innovation and expansion into new product lines, such as bio-based nylon, positions it well to capitalize on future market trends [33][35] Risks and Challenges - The report does not include specific risk factors, but potential challenges could include fluctuations in raw material prices, changes in regulatory policies, and competition in the amino acid market [8][33]