SGC(SH:601139) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2024-07-16 03:30Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage due to the favorable price mechanism and declining gas source costs, which enhance the stability of its urban gas business [6][10]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a clear business structure, expanding its urban gas operations from Shenzhen to surrounding provinces, with a robust profitability profile. As of the end of 2023, the company had over 7.63 million natural gas users, with a pipeline natural gas sales volume of 4.84 billion cubic meters, representing an 18.28% year-on-year increase [6][19]. - The demand side benefits from the adjustment of base costs, allowing the recovery of high procurement costs not previously passed on to downstream customers, which is expected to enhance profit margins [6][12]. - On the supply side, the company anticipates a recovery in gross profit margins due to the decline in natural gas prices and the completion of new projects that will increase LNG sales capacity [6][40]. Summary by Sections From Shenzhen to Nationwide - The company, established in 1996, has transitioned from primarily urban gas operations to a comprehensive clean energy operator, achieving a revenue of 30.93 billion yuan in 2023, a 2.88% increase year-on-year [17][19]. Urban Gas Business Benefits from Supply and Demand - The urban gas business is set to benefit from a dual advantage of price mechanism adjustments and declining gas source costs, with a significant increase in sales volume expected [29][43]. - The company has successfully expanded its urban gas operations to 11 provinces, with a notable increase in user numbers and sales volume [19][36]. Comprehensive Energy and Smart Services - The comprehensive energy and smart services segments have shown steady growth, contributing significantly to the company's profitability. The smart services segment saw a revenue increase of 33.97% in 2023 [7][22]. - The company has invested in various projects, including solar energy and smart gas services, which are expected to bolster its revenue streams [21][22]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 1.518 billion, 1.649 billion, and 1.800 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 5.4%, 8.6%, and 9.2% [10][11]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13, 12, and 11 for the years 2024-2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [10][11].