SUNWODA(300207) 东吴证券·2024-07-16 03:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's H1 performance forecast exceeds market expectations, with a projected net profit of 770-900 million yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 75%-105% [3] - The consumer lithium battery segment has shown significant contributions, with Q2 profits expected to reach nearly 700 million yuan, surpassing market expectations [3] - The company anticipates a 30% quarter-on-quarter increase in energy storage shipments for Q2, although it has not yet achieved a reduction in losses [3] - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upwards due to better-than-expected consumer business performance, with projected net profits of 1.749 billion yuan in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 52.162 billion yuan, with a forecast of 59.275 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.84% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 1.068 billion yuan, with an expected increase to 1.749 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 62.48% [2] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.94 yuan per share in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 16.39 [2] Consumer Lithium Battery Segment - The consumer segment's revenue and profitability in Q2 are expected to be strong, driven by a recovery in consumer electronics and an increase in smartphone shipments [3] - The company has improved its cell self-supply rate, which is expected to contribute to a 15% growth in the consumer business in 2024 [3] Energy Storage Segment - Energy storage shipments are projected to reach 5-6 GWh in Q2, a 30% increase from the previous quarter, with expectations of doubling shipments to around 20 GWh in 2024 [3] - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a goal of narrowing losses in the energy storage business in the second half of the year [3] Valuation and Price Target - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised to 1.749 billion yuan, 2.088 billion yuan, and 2.516 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 14, and 11 [3] - A target price of 23.5 yuan has been set for 2024, based on a P/E of 25 [3]