KDL(002850) 东吴证券·2024-07-16 06:00Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - 24H1 performance slightly exceeded market expectations with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 610-680 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%-34% [2] - Q2 net profit attributable to the parent company was 300-370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%-39%, with a median of 340 million yuan, up 3% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Q2 revenue is expected to grow by more than 20% quarter-on-quarter, with full-year revenue growth expected to be over 20% [3] - Despite rising raw material costs in Q2, profitability exceeded expectations with a net profit margin of 11%, only a 1 percentage point decrease from Q1 [3] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.45/1.83/2.24 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 20%/26%/23%, and a target price of 134 yuan based on a 25x PE for 2024 [3] Financial Performance and Valuation - 2024E revenue is projected to be 13.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.87%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.45 billion yuan, up 20.49% year-on-year [2] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at 5.35 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 14.52x [2] - The company's total market capitalization is 21.00 billion yuan, with a P/B ratio of 1.98x [4] - The company's net profit margin is expected to remain around 10% in Q3, supported by declining raw material prices [3] Industry and Market Context - The company is a leader in structural components, benefiting from stable product prices, improved capacity utilization, and cost control measures [3] - The company's overseas operations have started to generate profits, helping to offset the impact of rising raw material costs [3] - The aluminum price, which had risen by more than 10% in Q2, began to decline in June, with a 10% drop from the May peak, which is expected to support profitability in Q3 [3] Historical and Projected Financials - 2023A revenue was 10.51 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.47% [2] - 2025E revenue is projected to be 16.55 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.25% [2] - The company's ROE is expected to be 10.76% in 2025E, with a P/E ratio of 11.50x [8]