东鹏饮料：业绩快速增长，新品势能不减

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [4][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 78.6-80.8 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.95% to 47.98%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 16.0-17.3 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 44.39% to 56.12% [1][2]. - The company is advancing its national strategy, with Q2 2024 revenue expected to be 43.78-45.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.44% to 54.84% [1]. - The new product "Bup Shui La" is experiencing rapid growth, with daily sales increasing from 50,000 boxes in early 2023 to 120,000 boxes in H1 2024, and is expected to surpass 1 billion yuan in sales in 2024 [1][2]. - The establishment of a new production base in Kunming, Yunnan, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan, aims to enhance the company's national layout and support future sales growth [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 152.29 billion yuan in 2024 to 244.85 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 35%, 27%, and 26% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 28.56 billion yuan in 2024 to 47.67 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 40%, 30%, and 28% respectively [2]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 7.14 yuan in 2024 to 11.92 yuan in 2026 [3][6]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 33x in 2024 to 20x in 2026, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [2][3]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 12.16 in 2024 to 7.81 in 2026, reflecting a strengthening financial position [3][6]. - The enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is anticipated to decrease from 22.67 in 2024 to 13.11 in 2026, suggesting enhanced operational efficiency [3][6].