温氏股份：猪鸡共振+成本改善，24Q2强势扭亏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 25.53 [7][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a strong turnaround in Q2 2024, with expected net profit for H1 2024 ranging from RMB 12.5 billion to RMB 15.0 billion, and Q2 net profit estimated between RMB 24.9 billion and RMB 27.4 billion, indicating a significant recovery [2][3]. - The increase in prices for live pigs and yellow chickens, along with steady cost improvements, are the main drivers for the company's profitability in Q2 2024 [3][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a solid cost advantage, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2024 to RMB 100 billion, while keeping 2025 and 2026 forecasts unchanged [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company estimates Q2 pig farming profits to be around RMB 17 billion to RMB 19 billion, with a cost of approximately RMB 14.2 to RMB 14.7 per kilogram, a decrease of about RMB 1.0 to RMB 1.2 per kilogram from Q1 [3]. - The expected average profit per pig in Q2 is projected to be RMB 250, ranking among the top in the industry [3]. - The yellow chicken business is expected to generate profits of RMB 7 billion to RMB 9 billion, with costs around RMB 12.2 to RMB 12.7 per kilogram [3]. Market Outlook - The current pig cycle has not yet peaked, and the supply of breeding sows is expected to remain tight in the short term, which may lead to higher pig prices in the latter half of 2024 [4]. - The company is positioned for a prolonged recovery period in profitability due to its strong cost structure and high-quality production capabilities [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 at RMB 1.51, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13.51 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 3.15 [6][18]. - The company's estimated book value per share (BVPS) for 2024 is RMB 6.48, with corresponding values for 2025 and 2026 at RMB 8.29 and RMB 10.16 respectively [2][6].