中国平安：1H24中报前发行35亿美元可转债

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 69.00 for 2318 HK and RMB 70.00 for 601318 CH [2][5]. Core Views - The company plans to issue USD 3.5 billion in H-share convertible bonds, which is approximately 2.0% of its net assets as of Q1 2024. This financing is aimed at business development, capital replenishment, and supporting healthcare and elderly care services [5][6]. - The issuance of convertible bonds is seen as a low-cost financing strategy during a period of stock price weakness, which will enhance capital reserves [5][6]. - The report anticipates a 4.2% year-on-year growth in net profit for 1H24, with operating profit expected to grow by 1.5% [6]. - The estimated new business value (NBV) for the life insurance segment is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year for 1H24, while the property insurance segment is expected to have a combined cost ratio of 99.3% [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Data - The closing price as of July 16 was HKD 34.10 for 2318 HK and RMB 41.19 for 601318 CH. The market capitalization is approximately HKD 620.97 billion and RMB 750.08 billion respectively [5]. - The average daily trading volume over the past six months is HKD 1.68 billion for 2318 HK and RMB 2.32 billion for 601318 CH [5]. Earnings Forecast - The projected gross premium income for 2024 is RMB 574.11 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.02% [5]. - Total investment income is expected to reach RMB 115.16 billion in 2024, reflecting a significant increase of 245.59% compared to the previous year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 7.03, with a dividend per share (DPS) of RMB 2.44 [5]. Valuation - The report utilizes a three-stage DCF valuation method, with a target price based on the average of intrinsic value and book value methods, maintaining the target price at RMB 70 and HKD 69 [8]. - The estimated return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is projected at 13%, an improvement from 9.7% in 2023 [6][8].