阳光电源：沙特7.8gwh大单落地，储能业务有望持续高增

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company secured a major 7.8GWh energy storage project in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to significantly boost profits starting from 2025 [3] - The Middle East and Europe are experiencing a surge in large-scale energy storage demand, while the US market's influence is gradually decreasing [3] - The company is expected to see sequential growth in shipments and performance in the second half of 2024, driven by strong demand and project deliveries [3] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 105/126/151 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth of 11%/20%/20% [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow from 72,251 million yuan in 2023 to 119,458 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.25% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 9,440 million yuan in 2023 to 15,084 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 19.69% [2] - EPS is projected to rise from 4.55 yuan in 2023 to 7.28 yuan in 2026 [2] - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 15.44 in 2023 to 9.66 in 2026 [2] Market and Industry Analysis - The European large-scale energy storage market is expected to double to over 10GWh in 2024, while the US market is projected to grow by 50% to nearly 40GWh [3] - Emerging markets such as Chile and Australia are also showing strong demand for large-scale energy storage [3] - The company's global market share in large-scale energy storage is expected to increase, with the US market share decreasing from 40-50% in 2023 to 20-30% in 2024 [3] Company Performance and Strategy - The company is a leader in both photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, with a dual focus on technology and marketing driving growth [3] - The company is expected to ship 150-170GW of inverters in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of over 20% [3] - The company's energy storage business is expected to maintain high growth, supported by global demand for large-scale energy storage [3] Financial Metrics - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 82,877 million yuan in 2023 to 166,306 million yuan in 2026 [8] - The company's net cash flow from operating activities is expected to increase from 6,982 million yuan in 2023 to 14,331 million yuan in 2026 [8] - The company's ROE is forecasted to remain strong, with a diluted ROE of 34.07% in 2023 [8]