滨江集团：首次覆盖报告：区域聚焦强品质，业绩稳健显韧性

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Binjiang Group with an "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - Binjiang Group is a leading real estate developer in the Yangtze River Delta, with a strong brand and significant market presence in Zhejiang Province [3] - The company achieved rapid revenue growth in 2023, with revenue reaching RMB 70.44 billion, a 69.73% YoY increase, although net profit declined by 32.41% due to increased inventory impairment provisions [3] - Binjiang Group has actively expanded its land reserves, with 60% of its land bank located in Hangzhou, ensuring a strong foothold in the region [3] - The company's sales performance remained resilient in 2023, with sales reaching RMB 153.47 billion, maintaining its position as a top player in the industry [3] - Binjiang Group maintains a strong financial position, with a net debt ratio of 15.08% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.42, indicating low leverage and ample liquidity [3] Market Performance - Binjiang Group's stock price has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a significant decline over the past year [1] - The company's absolute and relative performance over the past three months has shown improvement, with a 27.23% absolute gain and a 27.60% relative gain [2] Financial Performance - In 2023, Binjiang Group's revenue grew by 69.73% YoY to RMB 70.44 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 32.41% to RMB 2.53 billion [3][5] - The company's gross margin slightly decreased to 16.76% in 2023, but it remains competitive compared to peers [5] - Binjiang Group's debt structure is healthy, with a net debt ratio of 15.08% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.42, indicating strong financial stability [3] Land Reserves and Expansion - Binjiang Group added 33 new land parcels in 2023, with a total gross floor area of 3.33 million square meters and a total land cost of RMB 25.6 billion [3] - The company's land bank is heavily concentrated in Hangzhou, accounting for 60% of its total land reserves, with the remaining 25% in other cities in Zhejiang Province and 15% outside Zhejiang [3] Sales and Market Position - Despite a challenging market environment, Binjiang Group achieved sales of RMB 153.47 billion in 2023, maintaining its position as the 11th largest real estate developer in China [3] - The company's sales performance in Hangzhou is particularly strong, with sales close to RMB 130 billion, making it the top developer in the region [31] Product Strategy and Development - Binjiang Group has established a standardized product system with five product types, catering to different market segments and ensuring high product quality [3] - The company's "1+5" development strategy focuses on real estate as the core business, while also expanding into services, leasing, hotels, elderly care, and industrial investment [36] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts that Binjiang Group's revenue will grow by 7.7%, 3.5%, and 2.6% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reaching RMB 75.85 billion, RMB 78.52 billion, and RMB 80.55 billion [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 17.8%, 20.1%, and 10.6% over the same period, reaching RMB 2.98 billion, RMB 3.58 billion, and RMB 3.95 billion [4] - The company's EPS is projected to be RMB 0.96, RMB 1.15, and RMB 1.27 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8X, 7X, and 6X [4]