Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - New home transaction area increased by 20.4% month-on-month but decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 5.2 percentage points [7] - Second-hand home transaction area remained stable month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing [7] - New home inventory area increased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with the absorption cycle also rising [7] - The land market saw an increase in transaction volume but a decrease in price, with the average land price dropping by 24.3% month-on-month and 52.9% year-on-year [7] - Domestic bond issuance by real estate companies increased significantly, with a total issuance of 169.9 billion yuan, up 94.0% month-on-month and 317.8% year-on-year [7] Summary by Sections New Home Market Tracking - In the 13th week, 47 cities recorded new home transactions of 34,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 24.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.8% [17] - The new home transaction area was 376.4 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 20.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.4% [26] - Transaction growth rates for new homes in first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities were 5.7%, 22.7%, and 33.7% respectively month-on-month [19] Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - The second-hand home transaction area in 23 cities was 296.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.0% [7] - Transaction growth rates for second-hand homes in first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities were 49.7%, 51.2%, and 51.6% respectively month-on-month [21] Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area in 100 cities was 1,618.8 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 39.1% and a year-on-year increase of 20.9% [25] - The total transaction price was 21.1 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 5.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 43.0% [25] Policy Overview - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development released a draft guideline for "Good Housing," emphasizing safety, comfort, green features, and smart technology [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as China Resources Land and China Jinmao [7] 2. Smaller companies showing significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition, like Poly Real Estate Group [7] 3. Commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios, such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Swire Properties [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The overall transaction scale in the real estate market remains stable, with land supply shifting towards core areas. In early 2026, new home transactions in Beijing showed a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, while second-hand home transactions decreased by 4.2% [5][16] - The policy environment has seen two rounds of relaxation in purchase restrictions, aimed at facilitating the housing exchange chain and stimulating demand [6][50] - The market is experiencing a differentiation in new home demand, with a focus on quality products under the "Good House" policy, particularly in high-demand areas like Haidian and Chaoyang [8][53] Market Overview - **Residential Transactions**: New home transactions in Beijing decreased by 11.8% year-on-year in 2025, totaling 104,000 units, while second-hand home transactions remained robust at 195,000 units, accounting for over 60% of total residential transactions [16][30] - **Inventory**: The available inventory of new homes in Beijing decreased, with a current sellable area of 8.85 million square meters and a decommissioning cycle of approximately 25.8 months as of February 2026 [30][35] - **Land Supply**: In 2025, Beijing saw a total of 61 land transactions, with a total area of 3.59 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21%. The average floor price reached 39,800 yuan per square meter [36][39] Policy Developments - The policy adjustments included two reductions in public housing loan interest rates and modifications to purchase restrictions, which are expected to release some incremental demand [6][50][51] - Specific changes included lowering the required social security payment period for non-Beijing residents from three years to two years for purchasing homes within the fifth ring road [50][52] Project Insights - The top ten new home projects in Beijing accounted for 23% of total sales in 2025, with a significant focus on improvement-type housing in core districts [40][43] - The trend in new home projects is towards smaller, affordable units, with several upcoming projects offering units under 80 square meters [47][48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the recent weekly transaction data shows a continued year-on-year decline in new and second-hand housing sales across 30 cities, reflecting a slight shortfall in the expected "small spring" recovery. However, new local policies in cities like Suzhou, Nanchang, Qingdao, and Guangzhou are expected to improve supply and demand dynamics, leading to price stabilization in the real estate market [5][6][46]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - Multiple cities have introduced local policies aimed at revitalizing the real estate market, including: - Suzhou's implementation of a housing fund interest subsidy for young talents starting April 1, 2026, covering 50% of the actual interest paid on housing fund loans, with a maximum subsidy of 50,000 yuan [6][13]. - Qingdao's initiative to explore efficient utilization of idle land resources [6][14]. - Guangzhou's measures to promote modular construction in new public housing projects [6][15]. Market Performance - Sales data shows a decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions: - In the 13th week of 2026, the new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 2.912 million square meters, down 8.5% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 18.4% [7][16]. - The second-hand housing transaction area in 15 cities was 200.2 million square meters, down 8% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 8.5% [24][25]. Investment Trends - The land transaction area in 100 major cities increased by 21% year-on-year in the 13th week of 2026, totaling 2.554 million square meters. However, the cumulative land transaction area for the first 13 weeks of 2026 showed a decline of 5% [32][33]. Price Trends - The Iceberg 100 Index, which tracks second-hand housing prices, was reported at 9983, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.4% [42][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry, suggesting that the recent local policies will lead to improved market conditions. Recommended stocks include: - Strong credit real estate companies that cater to improving customer demand: China Jinmao, Jianfa International Group, China Merchants Shekou, and others [5][46]. - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery: China Resources Land, New Town Holdings, and Longfor Group [5][46]. - Quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy: China Resources Mixc Life, Greentown Service, and others [5][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Insights - The real estate market is showing positive signals, particularly in core cities, with Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions nearing recent highs. In March 2026, the number of second-hand homes sold in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen were 27,733, 17,153, and 4,671 respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4.5%, -1.3%, and -17.0% [1][11] - The new housing market in 30 cities recorded a transaction area of 2.277 million square meters this week, a month-on-month increase of 16.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%. The first-tier cities accounted for 546,000 square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% [2][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of observing real estate data over a longer cycle and the transmission chain from second-hand to new housing [1][11] Summary by Sections Second-hand Housing Market - In March 2026, Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions are expected to exceed 30,000 units, with a significant daily transaction peak of 1,585 units on March 28, the highest since 2022 [1][11] - The average daily transaction volumes for Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen are 991, 613, and 167 units respectively [1][11] New Housing Market - The new housing transaction area in first-tier cities was 546,000 square meters, while second-tier cities saw 1.248 million square meters, and third-tier cities recorded 482,000 square meters [2][34] - Cumulative new housing transaction area for the first 12 weeks of the year in 30 cities is 1,538.9 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 29.6% [2][34] Credit Bond Market - A total of 14 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, amounting to 10.301 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.33 billion yuan from the previous week [3][49] - The net financing amount was -4.885 billion yuan, indicating a significant increase in the repayment volume [3][49] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to the expected policy support and improving competitive landscape, particularly favoring first-tier and select second-tier cities [4][6]

Core Insights - The report indicates a recovery in real estate prices, with capital market sentiment expected to reach a "singularity" soon [1] - The industry rating remains at "Buy," consistent with previous assessments [2] Policy Updates - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as Nanjing's "sell old buy new" loan interest subsidy, which offers a 1% subsidy on total loan amounts for buyers completing transactions by the end of 2026 [5][16] - Other cities like Zhengzhou and Chengdu are optimizing housing fund policies to support home purchases [16][17] Transaction Performance - The new housing market is showing signs of improvement, with a 31.6% week-on-week increase in transaction area across 49 cities, and a year-on-year increase of 48.1% when aligned with the Spring Festival [19][20] - Second-hand housing transactions also saw a 7.5% week-on-week increase, with a year-on-year growth of 13.5% [19] Market Sentiment - The report notes a significant increase in new housing supply, with a 58% week-on-week rise in new housing launches, while second-hand listings continue to decline [5] - The sentiment in the second-hand housing market remains unexpectedly strong, contributing to a gradual recovery in market confidence [5] Land Market Performance - The report highlights a decrease in land transaction volumes, with a 37.3% week-on-week drop in land sales revenue across 300 cities [19] Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - Key companies in the real estate sector are rated as "Buy," with reasonable values set for several firms, including Vanke A at 7.64 RMB and China Overseas Development at 16.02 HKD [6] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, indicating potential for valuation recovery [6] C-REITs Market Overview - The C-REITs sector saw a 0.85% decline in the comprehensive return index, with 12 out of 78 REITs experiencing gains [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [7] Core Insights - The current real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a notable increase in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a potential bottoming out of the market [5][6] - The "small spring" phenomenon in the second-hand housing market is the strongest seen in three years, with significant demand and a stable mindset among sellers [1][2] - Policy-driven cities, particularly Shanghai, are experiencing remarkable growth in transaction volumes, with small units becoming the main focus of sales [4][65] Summary by Sections Market Performance - New housing transaction volume has decreased by 8.8% year-on-year, while second-hand housing transactions have reached a new high since 2023, with a 22% increase in transaction volume across 26 cities [2][28] - The price index for second-hand housing has stabilized, with minor fluctuations observed in March, while first-tier cities remain relatively strong [2][49] Forward Indicators - The number of listings has increased seasonally but at a slower pace compared to last year, indicating a stable mindset among homeowners [3][52] - Viewing activity has shown a decline, which may impact future transaction volumes [3][59] - The bargaining rate has widened, reflecting a significant difference in price expectations between buyers and sellers [3][61] Characteristics of the "Small Spring" - Cities with effective policy measures, such as Shanghai, have shown impressive performance, with a 17.4% year-on-year increase in transaction volume [4][65] - Small units are becoming the primary focus of transactions, driven by affordability and supportive policies [4][74] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality real estate companies and service providers that are well-positioned for long-term growth, particularly those with strong credit ratings and operational capabilities [5][79] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Longfor Group, among others [10][81]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - New home sales have turned negative year-on-year, while the decline in second-hand home sales has narrowed. The minimum down payment ratio for commercial properties in Shanghai has been reduced to 30% [1]. - The inventory of new homes has increased both month-on-month and year-on-year, and the de-stocking cycle has also lengthened [1]. Summary by Sections New Home Market Tracking - In the 12th week, new home sales in 47 cities amounted to 312.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%. The year-on-year growth rate has decreased by 21.0 percentage points compared to the previous week [5]. - The sales volume in first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities showed varied month-on-month growth rates of -0.1%, 26.5%, -17.3%, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -17.7%, -8.6%, -20.3% [5][15]. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - The second-hand home sales area in 23 cities reached 270.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 6.5 percentage points compared to the previous week [5]. - The sales volume in first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities showed month-on-month growth rates of 8.1%, 11.5%, 8.2%, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -2.5%, -12.4%, -0.2% [5][11]. Inventory and De-stocking Cycle - As of the end of the 12th week, the new home inventory in 13 cities was 79.95 million square meters, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0.1% and a year-on-year growth rate of 1.0%. The de-stocking cycle is 26.0 months, which is an increase of 0.2 months month-on-month and an increase of 6.5 months year-on-year [5][33]. - The de-stocking cycle for first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities is 21.3, 24.0, and 65.0 months, respectively [5][25]. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area in 100 cities was 11.639 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 16.1% but a year-on-year increase of 45.2%. The total transaction price was 20.04 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 13.5% but a year-on-year increase of 59.7% [5][11]. - The average land price was 1,722 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 3.1% and a year-on-year increase of 10.0% [5][11]. Policy Insights - Starting from March 16, Shanghai adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial properties to 30%, following a national policy adjustment [5]. - The report suggests that there are multiple opportunities for phase returns in the real estate sector throughout 2026, with a focus on market sentiment, transaction performance, and policy developments [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in first and second-tier cities, such as China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou [5]. 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition, such as Poly Real Estate [5]. 3. Commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios, such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Swire Properties [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the evolution of real estate stock valuation from PE to PB, indicating a shift in focus from growth to asset safety margins as the industry transitions into a phase of stock game and supply-side clearing [3][10] - The report emphasizes that PB valuation is not an isolated metric but is derived from the DCF model, with significant implications for understanding the current market dynamics [7][15] - The report identifies that the core variable affecting PB valuation is the de-stocking rate, suggesting that companies with higher de-stocking rates will have better PB valuations [5][50] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Valuation Evolution - Real estate valuation has evolved through three stages: 1. Pre-2010: Growth stock logic with a focus on PE 2. 2011-2020: Policy constraint period where PE remained central but sales indicators gained attention 3. 2021-present: Focus has shifted to asset safety margins, with PB valuation becoming the primary tool [3][13] 2. PB Valuation Deconstruction - The report discusses the deep logic behind PB valuations being below 1, attributing it to high leverage, declining profit margins, and slower turnover rates [7][22] - It notes significant internal differentiation in PB valuations among developers, with 30 out of 50 A-share developers having PBs above 1, primarily due to potential transformation or stable land reserves in high-capacity cities [26][28] 3. PB Valuation Breakthrough - The report suggests that the de-stocking rate is a critical variable for PB valuation, with a direct correlation between de-stocking rates and PB levels [5][50] - It emphasizes that the market's perception of a company's growth potential significantly influences its PB, with companies showing strong de-stocking rates achieving PBs above 0.7 [50][54] 4. Investment Strategy - The report maintains a strategy of "deeply exploring alpha stocks" for 2026, recommending a ranking of investment focus: commercial management > property > industrial parks > intermediaries = leading developers > transformation targets [6][71] - It highlights that commercial management offers higher ROE and stable cash flow, making it a more attractive investment in the current real estate cycle [6][71] 5. Screening for Undervalued Companies - The report outlines criteria for screening undervalued companies based on their profit and net asset status, suggesting different valuation methods for companies with positive, negative, or negative net assets [60][61] - It identifies specific undervalued stocks, including Binjiang Group and China Overseas Development, with their respective ROE and PB valuations indicating potential for recovery [64][70]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the national new housing transaction area and second-hand housing transaction area have both declined year-on-year for six consecutive weeks, reflecting a slight shortfall in the "small spring" recovery. However, with the central bank's continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the introduction of various real estate optimization policies in cities like Nanjing and Zhengzhou, it is expected that the real estate market will see improvements in supply and demand, leading to price stabilization [3][5][51]. Summary by Sections Policy Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the sales area of new commercial housing in January-February was 92.93 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, with the decline rate widening by 4.8 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2025. The sales amount for new commercial housing was 818.6 billion yuan, down 20.2% [4][12]. - The central bank continues to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [4][14]. Sales Data - In the 12th week of 2026, the new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 2.216 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%. Cumulatively, the new housing transaction area in 32 cities was 17.912 million square meters, down 19.8% year-on-year [20][29]. - The second-hand housing transaction area in 15 cities was 1.7075 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5% [29][30]. Investment Data - In the 12th week of 2026, the land transaction area in 100 major cities was 19.618 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 35%. Cumulatively, the land transaction area in these cities was 276.286 million square meters, down 7% year-on-year [37][39]. - The average land transaction price was 1,082 yuan per square meter, up 9% year-on-year, with a total land transaction value of 23.11 billion yuan, an increase of 48% [39][40]. Price Trends - The Iceberg 100 Index for the 12th week of 2026 was 9,994, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%. Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou saw year-on-year declines of 14.9%, 11.1%, 10.1%, and 12.8% respectively [47][49]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry, recommending companies with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land. It also suggests companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, as well as high-quality property management firms [3][51].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the national real estate market is experiencing a slight downturn in transaction volumes, with new home sales in 30 cities and second-hand home sales in 15 cities showing a continuous decline for six weeks year-on-year. However, the implementation of various policies aimed at stabilizing the market is expected to lead to improvements in supply and demand, as well as price stabilization [3][51] - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their strong fundamentals and ability to meet the needs of improvement-oriented customers, including Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, and China Overseas Development [3][51] Summary by Sections Policy Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the sales area of new commercial housing in January-February was 92.93 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, with a significant drop in residential sales area [12] - The central bank continues to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [4][12] - Cities like Shanghai and Nanjing have introduced policies to optimize the real estate market, including adjustments to down payment ratios for commercial housing loans [4][16] Market Performance - In the 12th week of 2026, the new home transaction area in 30 cities was 2.216 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%, while the cumulative transaction area for new homes in 32 cities was 17.912 million square meters, down 19.8% [20][29] - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 15 cities was 1.7075 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5% [29][30] - The land transaction area in 100 major cities increased by 35% year-on-year, with a total land transaction area of 27.6286 million square meters in the first 12 weeks of 2026, showing a cumulative decrease of 7% [37][39] Price Trends - The Iceberg 100 Index for the 12th week of 2026 was 9994, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.5% [47][49] - The report notes that the average land transaction price was 1082 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year increase of 9% [39][40] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry, suggesting that the market will see improvements in supply and demand and price stabilization due to recent policy implementations [51] - Recommended companies include those with strong fundamentals and those benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group [3][51]