开竣工边际改善，房价仍有压力 证券研究报告 房地产 华泰研究 2025 年 10 月 20 日│中国内地 行业月报 行业仍在筑底企稳之中，更看好核心城市资源充沛的房企 9 月数据显示行业仍处于筑底企稳之中，边际上开竣工面积与销售金额当月 同比降幅收窄，但房价环比仍有下行压力，市场全面修复尚未到来。我们更 看好以一线城市为代表的核心城市复苏节奏，以及在对应区域拥有储备或新 获取资源的房企的估值修复，推荐具备"好信用、好城市、好产品"逻辑的 地产股，分红与业绩稳健的头部物管公司。重点推荐：1）A 股开发：城建 发展、城投控股、新城控股、滨江集团、招商蛇口；2）港股开发：华润置 地、建发国际集团、中国海外发展、绿城中国、越秀地产；3）物管公司： 绿城服务、华润万象生活、万物云、招商积余。 开发投资当月同比降幅扩大，开竣工边际改善 9 月房地产开发投资当月同比降有所扩大，开竣工边际有所改善，施工面积 延续下滑。9 月开发投资额当月同比-21%，降幅较 8 月扩大 1.8pct，1-9 月 累计同比-14%。区分开发链条来看：1）拿地：9 月土地市场成交情况边际 好转，成交建面/成交金额分别同比-1%/-7%（8 月- ...

南方财经10月20日电，上海八批次土拍最热门地块之一——徐汇区WS5单元188N-I-21地块被中海地产以44.65亿元拿下，溢价率10%。地块为 纯宅地，总建筑面积约为3万平方米，容积率1.5，成交楼板价楼板价148503元/平方米，刷新徐汇滨江板块单价纪录。该地块由中海地产，保 利发展，招商蛇口、西岸开发、滨江集团联合体三家参与竞拍。值得关注的是，民营房企"一哥"滨江集团上一次在上海公开拿地是2015年联手 平安不动产，以34.65亿元拿下上海宝山区大场镇祁连社区地块，该项目即后来的滨江·公园壹号。此次参拍徐汇滨江地块无功而返，滨江集团 相关人士对记者表示："后续我们应该还是会继续参与上海土拍的。"（21世纪经济报道） ...

该地块，限高30米，容积率1.5，起始总价40.5亿元，未来有望建成叠墅类产品。这是近些年板块内推出 的罕有低密地块，也堪称徐汇滨江的王炸地块。 徐汇滨江，是上海楼市中的热土。即便在行业整体下行期，这里的土地和新盘依然保持高热度、高去化 率，堪称上海楼市中难得的"价值高地"。如果滨江、招商等组成的联合体能成功拿下，相信会是这块地 最好的归宿。 民营房企，四个字在当下地产业弥足珍贵。滨江，是民营房企一哥。 滨江是诞生在杭州的房企名片，另一家是绿城中国。N年前，业界已经流传着"全国住宅品质看杭州， 杭州看绿城和滨江"的说法。 本周，上海将迎来第八批次公开土地出让。在一众央国企主导的战场里，将有一家民营房企的身影：来 自杭州的滨江集团。 据路数的前线小伙伴来报，滨江将和央企招商地产以及另外一家地方国企，组成联合体，竞逐上海徐汇 区WS5单元188N-I-21地块。 此时选择回归上海，要从滨江的上海情节说起。 上海曾一度是滨江走出浙江，迈向全国化的第一站。 事实上，招商和滨江有一大共通点：招商在上海与滨江在杭州，都以"合作开发"见长。 近些年来，每每被人问及何时能重返上海，戚老板均以"合适的机会"为由解释。 如今滨江 ...

位于东面的两宗姊妹地块，零距离玉湖公园，其中稍北的YH030704-11地块用地性质为商业兼商务金融 用地（B1/B2），用地面积1.90公顷，容积率不大于3.5，建筑密度不大于45%，绿地率不小于25%，建 筑限高175米。 商报讯（记者 周坚洪）最近，余杭区公示了良渚东单元YH030703-34、YH030704-11、YH030704-12地 块选址论证报告，北部新城板块新增1宗低密宅地和2宗商业地块。 新增1宗低密宅地 这3宗地块，东至义马漾路，南至九号支路，西至规划公园绿地和西塘路，北至六号支路和八号支路， 总用地面积6.21公顷。 从地图来看，都在良运街的北面，玉湖公园的西面，距离地铁10号线、4号线换乘站杭行路站和城北万 象城约700米，3公里范围内有杭行路小学、良渚第二中学、树兰国际医学（000516）中心等各类配套。 具体来看，位于最西面的YH030703-34地块，拟规划为二类城镇住宅用地（R2），用地面积2.83公顷， 容积率不大于2.2，建筑密度不大于22%，绿地率不小于35%，建筑高度不大于54米。 这宗宅地虽然无法享受一线玉湖湖景，不过南面同样有河景，而且到规划的K11 Selec ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：您好，辉能科技桃科工厂已经累计量产出货固态电池 240万颗，目前辉能科技生产线扩产进行的怎么样？公司是否追加投资增加持股比例扶持其快速扩产满 足市场需求？ 滨江集团（002244.SZ）10月14日在投资者互动平台表示，您好，据悉辉能科技法国工厂建设已取得当 地的环评和建筑许可，目前正处于EPC招标阶段。公司对辉能科技的投资规划视其发展情况而定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Binjiang Group's stock has shown significant volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 40.48% but a recent decline of 3.23% over the past five trading days [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 14, Binjiang Group's stock price was 11.98 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 37.275 billion CNY [1] - The stock experienced a net outflow of 1.3782 million CNY from major funds, with large orders buying 14.5031 million CNY and selling 16.8524 million CNY [1] - Over the last 20 days, the stock price increased by 18.50%, while it rose by 20.67% over the last 60 days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Binjiang Group reported a revenue of 45.449 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 87.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.853 billion CNY, up 58.87% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, Binjiang Group has distributed a total of 4.735 billion CNY in dividends, with 1.313 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of October 10, the number of shareholders for Binjiang Group was 27,300, a decrease of 0.52% from the previous period, with an average of 98,319 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 0.53% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable entities such as Fortune Tianhui Growth Mixed Fund and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with some shareholders reducing their holdings [2]

Core Insights - The report from CICC indicates that the second-hand housing market in September shows a mixed performance, with transaction volume declining month-on-month but increasing year-on-year, suggesting ongoing market weakness [1][2]. Transaction Volume and Price Trends - In September, the transaction volume index for second-hand residential properties in 80 cities decreased by 10% month-on-month but increased by 19% year-on-year (Q3 +19%, Q2 +17%) [1]. - The registered transaction area in 15 cities rose by 6% month-on-month and grew by 9% year-on-year (Q3 +3%, Q2 +11%) [1]. - The price index for homogeneous second-hand residential properties fell by 1.7% month-on-month (Q3 average -1.7%, Q2 average -1.4%) [1]. - The negotiation space for transactions increased by 25 basis points to 8.91% [1]. Listing Trends - The number of second-hand residential listings in 130 cities increased by 0.4% month-on-month, continuing a slight upward trend [2]. - The price index for homogeneous listings in key cities decreased by 1.5% month-on-month (Q3 average -1.3%, Q2 average -1.2%) [2]. - The average adjustment for listed properties was -5.24%, indicating a conservative price expectation among sellers [2]. Rental Market Insights - The rental index for homogeneous listings decreased by 0.8% month-on-month (August -0.5%) [3]. - The average rental period remained stable at 2.12 months [3]. - The rental-to-sale ratio increased by 2 basis points to 2.33% due to declining listing prices [3]. Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the real estate and property management sectors, particularly in companies with solid fundamentals and profit quality such as China Resources Land, Jianfa International, and others [4]. - It also recommends considering undervalued stocks like Greentown China and New Town Holdings, given potential liquidity improvements [4]. - The report highlights the importance of identifying stocks with strong growth prospects or attractive dividend yields across various sectors [4].

房地产 2025 年 10 月 12 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 房地产基本面依然低迷，板块业绩短期仍然承压 看好 ——房地产行业 2025 年三季报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 评 证 告 ⚫ 考虑到板块结算下降及利润率低位，预计 3Q2025 房企业绩仍承压、但有分化。基本面方 面，2022-24 年房地产行业基本面大幅下行；随着宏观及行业政策持续加码，预计后续行 业基本面有望呈现底部复苏迹象，但复苏态势仍然缓慢、且出现反复现象，预计改善路径 将呈现"L"型曲折性弱复苏走势。展望 3Q2025 板块业绩，我们认为板块业绩仍将继续 承压，主要源于：1）2021 年后销售连续下降导致结算下降；2）前期降价促 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the current real estate policies are under pressure from the fundamental market conditions, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the week covering the National Day holiday, new housing transaction volume in 30 cities was 835,000 square meters, down 55.3% week-on-week and 53.4% year-on-year [11] - The decline in new housing transactions is attributed to a combination of last year's high base and the current market's sluggishness [11][12] - The report anticipates continued pressure on year-on-year data for the fourth quarter due to elevated bases from the previous year [11] Secondary Housing Transactions - In the same week, secondary housing transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 843,000 square meters, reflecting a 27.9% decrease week-on-week and a 47.9% decrease year-on-year [21] - Year-to-date, secondary housing transactions have reached 80.2 million square meters, showing a 16.1% increase compared to the previous year [21] Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 Shenwan primary industries [32] - The report identifies a total of 64 stocks that increased in value during the week, while 43 stocks decreased [32] Credit Bond Issuance - During the week, two credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 940 million yuan, a decrease of 11.28 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate sector, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [32]. Core Insights - The alpha of real estate stocks depends on the precision of land acquisition, with the current macroeconomic environment not supporting a general rise in housing prices, making it challenging for companies to ensure project profitability [6][7]. - The value of real estate stocks is derived from the discounted future residual earnings, which are based on the profitability of each project, ultimately reflecting on ROE and valuation [6][7]. - The report highlights that the market for new homes is contracting, and the effective market area for new homes is shrinking, complicating the identification of valuable land parcels [7][24]. - The report suggests that future sector opportunities will primarily arise from improved land acquisition comfort for real estate companies, transitioning from a contracting to an expanding market [24]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,233.623 billion and a circulating market value of 1,183.334 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 7.6%, 16.6%, and 3.4% respectively, while the relative performance is 4.4%, -1.9%, and -12.1% [3]. Project Profitability and Market Dynamics - The profitability of real estate companies is increasingly dependent on project-level earnings, with past profits driven by rising property prices and a focus on debt leverage [6][7]. - The report notes that the supply of quality land has increased, leading to heightened competition among projects, and some older projects may face challenges in sales due to new building regulations [7][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that have demonstrated precise land acquisition over the past three years, such as Greentown China, China Resources Land, and Jianfa International Group, while also monitoring companies like China Overseas Grand Oceans and China Jinmao for improvements in land acquisition in the latter half of 2024 [24].