温氏股份：Q2同环比扭亏为盈，畜禽成本稳步回落

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a turnaround in Q2, achieving profitability with a net profit forecast of 1.25 billion to 1.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, compared to a loss in the previous year [1][2] - The company expects to sell 30 to 33 million pigs in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 43.6% to 47.9% [1] - The average selling price of pigs increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 15.32 yuan/kg [1] - The company anticipates a new upward cycle in pig prices starting in 2024, driven by supply-demand dynamics and production capacity adjustments [4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company forecasts a net profit of 10.257 billion yuan, a significant increase of 260.5% year-on-year [5] - The expected revenue for 2024 is 112.561 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.2% [5] - The company projects a gross margin of 17.0% for 2024, up from 0.8% in 2023 [5] - The company plans to increase its pig output to 33 million heads in 2024, with further growth expected in subsequent years [4] Production and Sales Insights - The company sold 14.3742 million pigs in the first half of 2024, a 22.0% increase year-on-year, achieving its annual target ahead of schedule [1] - The chicken output for the first half of 2024 was 548 million birds, a slight decrease of 1.0% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 13.29 yuan/kg [1] - The company expects chicken business profitability of approximately 900 million yuan in Q2 2024, with production costs steadily declining [1] Market Outlook - The company is positioned as the second-largest pig farming enterprise and the largest yellow feather chicken farming enterprise in China, indicating strong market potential [4] - The report highlights that the current cycle of pig price adjustments has seen a cumulative reduction of 9.2% since December 2022, which is expected to positively impact future pricing [1][4]