HAOMEI(002988) 长城证券·2024-07-18 00:31Investment Rating - The report gives the company a "Buy" rating, expecting its stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next 6 months [111] Core Views - The company is a leading aluminum profile manufacturer with a strong presence in construction, industrial, automotive lightweighting, and system doors/windows sectors [120] - Automotive lightweighting and system doors/windows are key growth drivers, with the former benefiting from rapid EV adoption and the latter from increasing market penetration [120][122][123] - The company has a solid foundation in construction and industrial aluminum profiles, while actively expanding into higher value-added applications [122] Business Overview - In 2023, construction aluminum profiles accounted for 37.57% of revenue, industrial profiles 32.15%, automotive lightweighting 21.24%, and system doors/windows 8.40% [9] - Q1 2024 revenue reached 1.411 billion yuan, up 7.85% YoY, with net profit attributable to parent company surging 177.60% to 59 million yuan [3] - Gross margin improved to 12.01% in Q1 2024, up 1.50 percentage points YoY, while net margin increased 2.55 percentage points to 4.13% [10] Automotive Lightweighting - National aluminum profile output reached 21.8 million tons in 2023, with industrial profiles growing 25% YoY to 9.5 million tons [13] - Aluminum is a key material for automotive lightweighting due to its low density, high strength, and excellent processing properties [15] - The company has accumulated over 300 projects in automotive lightweighting by end-2023, with 70 new projects added in 2023 [45] - Automotive lightweighting revenue grew at a 72.40% CAGR from 2019-2023, reaching 1.272 billion yuan in 2023 [30] System Doors/Windows - System doors/windows penetration rate in China is less than 5%, compared to over 70% in Europe, indicating significant growth potential [66] - The company's system doors/windows subsidiary Becklo was established in 2009 and has been ranked among top 3 preferred suppliers by China's top 500 real estate developers for 5 consecutive years [72][78] - System doors/windows revenue reached 503 million yuan in 2023, up 54.80% YoY, with new orders totaling 610 million yuan, up 59.07% YoY [82][83] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue is forecast to grow at a 15.4-16.1% CAGR, reaching 9.276 billion yuan in 2026 [93] - Automotive lightweighting revenue is expected to grow at a 30.8-45.5% CAGR, reaching 3.299 billion yuan in 2026 [91] - System doors/windows revenue is projected to grow at a 30.5-45.8% CAGR, reaching 1.298 billion yuan in 2026 [91]