腾远钴业：公司首次覆盖报告：国内领先的钴、铜生产商，着力打造一体化布局

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic producer of cobalt and copper, actively expanding its presence in the new energy industry chain. It has introduced new products such as battery-grade nickel sulfate and lithium carbonate, which are expected to become new profit growth points [2][46]. - The company is expected to see stable production releases of copper, cobalt, and nickel, with a tight supply-demand structure supporting high copper prices, which will bolster future performance. Projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 755 million, 1,054 million, and 1,464 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.56, 3.58, and 4.97 yuan [2][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading producer of cobalt and copper in China, established in 2004. It has made significant advancements in technology and production capacity, including the successful launch of its Congo operations [46][51]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with major shareholders holding 39.70% of the shares as of Q1 2024 [34][49]. Production and Financial Performance - In 2023, the company significantly increased its production, with copper output rising by 77.96% to 49,600 tons and cobalt output increasing by 60.74% to 15,600 tons. The company achieved a revenue of 5.543 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.46% [3][51][53]. - The company’s net profit for 2023 was 378 million yuan, up 37.96% year-on-year, and it is projected to continue growing in the coming years [5][51]. Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for cobalt is expected to remain stable, particularly in the lithium battery sector, which accounts for over 70% of cobalt's downstream demand. The supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) dominates global cobalt production, accounting for 74% of the total output in 2023 [4][83]. - The report anticipates a narrowing of the global cobalt supply surplus, with projected surpluses of 13,100 tons and 13,600 tons in 2024 and 2025, respectively [4][27]. Future Growth Potential - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in the energy metals sector, including nickel and lithium, and is focusing on secondary resource recovery technologies to enhance its supply chain resilience [67][77]. - The company has established a comprehensive production capacity, with plans for further expansion in the coming years, including a projected annual capacity of 60,000 tons of copper and 10,000 tons of cobalt intermediate products [71][72].