福能股份：火电与绿电协同，项目储备多元化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company has adjusted its profit forecast and raised its target price to 12.76 RMB, up from the previous 10.83 RMB, based on a target PE of 11x for 2024 [2][9]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in net profit from its renewable energy segment in the second half of 2024, following a decline in wind conditions in the first quarter [3]. - The company aims to diversify its project reserves, targeting an installed capacity of 15 GW by 2025 and 20 GW by 2030 [5]. Summary by Sections Operating Forecast and Valuation - The company’s operating data for the first half of 2024 indicates a potential recovery in net profit from renewable energy, with a forecasted net profit of 30.0 billion RMB for 2024, increasing to 34.8 billion RMB by 2026 [2][6]. - The report highlights a decrease in coal prices, which is expected to benefit the company's thermal power profits [4]. Renewable Energy Performance - The company’s total installed capacity remains stable at 5.99 GW, with wind power contributing 1.81 GW. The wind generation is expected to improve in the second half of 2024 [3]. - The report notes that the company’s renewable subsidiaries experienced a decline in net profit in 2023, but improvements in wind conditions could lead to significant profit growth in the latter half of 2024 [3]. Thermal Power Performance - The report indicates that the company’s thermal power generation growth has slowed, with a forecasted net profit increase due to falling coal prices [4]. - The company’s thermal power segment is expected to benefit from improved utilization hours and average on-grid electricity prices [4]. Project Diversification - The company is actively pursuing a diversified portfolio of power generation projects, including pumped storage and offshore wind projects, with a goal of reaching 15 GW and 20 GW of installed capacity by 2025 and 2030, respectively [5][22].