三只松鼠：2024Q2点评：线上高增，盈利改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by online sales, with a forecasted revenue of 13.94 to 14.54 billion yuan for Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.45% to 46.49% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q2 2024 is projected to be between -0.23 to -0.16 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 40.25% to 57.32% [8] - The company is actively embracing the trend of cost-effective consumption, with strong growth in the Douyin channel expected to continue [8] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 7.115 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, followed by significant growth in subsequent years: 10.407 billion yuan in 2024 (up 46.3%), 13.891 billion yuan in 2025 (up 33.5%), and 17.745 billion yuan in 2026 (up 27.7%) [3][4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 0.220 billion yuan in 2023 to 0.860 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 69.9% in 2023, 71.0% in 2024, 54.4% in 2025, and 48.3% in 2026 [3][4] - The gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 23.3% in 2023 to 24.2% in 2026 [3][4] Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 32.82 in 2024 to 8.95 in 2026, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [3][4] - The ROE is projected to increase significantly from 8.7% in 2023 to 24.5% in 2026, reflecting enhanced profitability [3][4] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to decline from 22.37 in 2024 to 6.28 in 2026, suggesting a more attractive valuation over time [3][4]