XIANGPIAOPIAO(SH:603711) Huajin Securities·2024-07-18 04:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating a positive long-term outlook despite a slight adjustment in earnings forecasts due to Q2 performance being slightly below expectations [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is pursuing a dual-driven strategy, with a solid foundation in its brewing business and potential growth in its ready-to-drink segment. The report anticipates that the ready-to-drink products will gradually release performance elasticity as successful pilot markets are established nationwide, alongside diversified channel expansion and increased marketing efforts [2][3]. - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been slightly adjusted, with expected revenues of 42.09 billion, 48.61 billion, and 55.13 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.1%, 15.5%, and 13.4%. The adjusted net profit forecasts are 3.37 billion, 4.16 billion, and 4.93 billion yuan, with growth rates of 20.3%, 23.2%, and 18.5% respectively [2][3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company reported a revenue of 3.625 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.209 billion, 4.861 billion, and 5.513 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 16.1%, 15.5%, and 13.4% [6][10]. - The net profit for 2023 was 280 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31%. The projected net profits for the next three years are 337 million, 416 million, and 493 million yuan, with growth rates of 20.3%, 23.2%, and 18.5% [6][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 37.5% in 2023 to 38.5% by 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6][10].