Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the Southeast Asian express logistics industry and is expanding its overseas logistics market. It has shown significant revenue growth, with a fivefold increase from 2020 to 2023, and is leveraging its experience in China to enhance its operations in Southeast Asia and other emerging markets [3][10][18]. Company Overview - The company, established in 2019, focuses on express transportation and cross-border logistics services, covering 13 countries including Indonesia, Vietnam, and China. It has a robust logistics network with over 8,500 partners and 19,600 collection and delivery points [10][13]. - The express service revenue has grown significantly, contributing to the overall revenue increase, with a reported revenue of 80.87 billion USD in 2023, up from 14.82 billion USD in 2020 [14][18]. Market Analysis - The domestic e-commerce market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a 2023 online retail sales figure of 15.43 trillion RMB, reflecting an 11.90% year-on-year increase. The live e-commerce sector is particularly booming, with a market size reaching 4.92 trillion RMB in 2023, up 35.2% from the previous year [21][22]. - The Southeast Asian express market is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.5% from 2023 to 2027, with the company holding a 25.4% market share in the region as of 2023 [28][30]. Financial Overview - The company’s total revenue is expected to reach 766.19 billion RMB in 2024, with a projected net profit of -28.25 billion RMB. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to improve from -0.32 RMB in 2024 to 0.22 RMB by 2026 [4][5]. - The gross profit margin has improved from -17.03% in 2020 to 5.34% in 2023, indicating better cost management and operational efficiency [18][19]. Future Outlook - The company aims to consolidate its position in the Chinese market while continuing to expand in Southeast Asia and new markets. The focus will be on leveraging its logistics network and operational strategies to capture additional market share [33][35].
极兔速递－Ｗ：中国快递经验赋能东南亚市场，新兴市场增量红利未来可期