Juewei Food (603517) 光大证券·2024-07-19 00:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Juewei Food (603517 SH) despite short-term consumption pressures [4][105] Core Views - The optional food industry has entered a deceleration phase with most categories growing at single-digit rates except for nuts, meat, and aquatic products [2] - Juewei Food's long-term development logic remains positive, with adjustments made to net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 647/841/933 million yuan (down 23%/14%/19% respectively) [105] - The leisure braised food industry still has strong vitality, with the key being adaptation to channel changes [105] Industry Analysis Optional Food Market Trends - From 2012 to 2022, most optional food categories experienced a slowdown in growth, with only a few like chips and puffed snacks maintaining growth [2] - Instant noodles have shown resilience, with demand recovering to 98% of historical highs by 2022 due to product innovation and diversified marketing [188] - The jelly market faced a significant downturn after the "toxic gelatin" incident in 2014, but new brands like ZUO and Meidong have revitalized the category by targeting younger consumers [30][191] Japanese Market Insights - Japan's "chushoku" (mid-meal) market has grown steadily for 30 years, driven by aging populations and convenience-seeking behaviors [199] - Hotland, a leading Japanese takoyaki brand, has maintained sustainable same-store sales growth through data-driven strategies and IP collaborations [62][105] - Hotland's success is attributed to strong upstream control, exclusive cooking equipment, and multi-format expansion [220][222][225] Company Analysis Juewei Food's Positioning - Juewei Food's core products, such as duck necks and chicken feet, have strong market positions due to their unique attributes like bone-removal and addictive spiciness [169] - The company is actively adapting to channel changes, including online platforms like Douyin and snack retail chains [105][177] Hotland's Strategies and Implications - Hotland emphasizes data analysis for product development, marketing, and store expansion, leading to consistent same-store sales growth [62][220] - The company has diversified its product offerings and expanded into new formats like highball bars and frozen takoyaki for home consumption [225][93] - Hotland's IP collaborations, such as with "Demon Slayer," have significantly boosted brand visibility and sales [96] Financial Projections - Juewei Food's revenue is projected to grow from 6 623 million yuan in 2022 to 8 362 million yuan in 2026, with net profit increasing from 233 million yuan to 933 million yuan [142][105] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 40x in 2022 to 10x in 2026, reflecting improved profitability and market confidence [142][105]