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海油工程：公告点评：与浦项制铁签署5.23亿美元总承包合同，海外业务持续高质量发展
600583COOEC(600583) 光大证券·2024-07-19 00:01

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 5.67 RMB [4] Core Views - The company signed a 523millionEPCcontractwithPOSCOInternationalfortheSHWEgasfielddevelopmentinMyanmar,markingasignificantstepinitsoverseasstrategy[1][2]−Theprojectdemonstratesthecompany′sdeepwaterEPCcapabilities,asitinvolvesworkatdepthsexceeding1,000meters[2]−Overseasprojectscontinuetoprogresssteadily,withkeyprojectsinSaudiArabia,Uganda,Brazil,andQataradvancingasplanned[2]−Thecompanyisexpectedtobenefitfromthehighindustrygrowthandincreasedupstreamcapitalexpenditurebyitsparentcompany[2]FinancialPerformance−Revenueisprojectedtogrowfrom29.36billionRMBin2022to49.65billionRMBin2026,withaCAGRof14.1523 million EPC contract with POSCO International for the SHWE gas field development in Myanmar, marking a significant step in its overseas strategy [1][2] - The project demonstrates the company's deepwater EPC capabilities, as it involves work at depths exceeding 1,000 meters [2] - Overseas projects continue to progress steadily, with key projects in Saudi Arabia, Uganda, Brazil, and Qatar advancing as planned [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the high industry growth and increased upstream capital expenditure by its parent company [2] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 29.36 billion RMB in 2022 to 49.65 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.1% [4] - Net profit is forecasted to increase from 1.46 billion RMB in 2022 to 2.50 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.6% [4] - EPS is expected to rise from 0.33 RMB in 2022 to 0.57 RMB in 2026 [4] - ROE is projected to improve from 6.15% in 2022 to 8.60% in 2026 [4] Industry Outlook - Global upstream exploration and development capital expenditure is expected to exceed 600 billion in 2024, a 5.7% increase from 2023 [2] - The parent company, CNOOC, has set a capital expenditure budget of 125-135 billion RMB for 2024, representing continued growth from 2023 [2] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 17x in 2022 to 10x in 2026 [4] - The P/B ratio is projected to decrease from 1.1x in 2022 to 0.9x in 2026 [4] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to drop from 10.8x in 2022 to 4.1x in 2026 [8] Operational Highlights - In Q1 2024, the company secured new contracts worth 6.52 billion RMB, an 11% YoY increase [2] - Domestic new contract value reached 6.11 billion RMB in Q1 2024, up 17% YoY [2] - Overseas new contract value was 407 million RMB in Q1 2024, down 39% YoY [2]