CATL(300750) 国信证券·2024-07-20 13:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price range of 226.2-238.0 RMB, representing a 20%-26% premium over the current stock price [1][5] Core Views - The company has maintained its position as the global leader in power batteries for seven consecutive years, with a global market share of 36.8% in 2023 [1] - The company has also been the global leader in energy storage batteries since 2021, with a market share of 40% in 2023 [1] - The global power battery demand is expected to reach 1002GWh in 2024 and 1476GWh in 2027, while energy storage battery demand is projected to be 231GWh in 2024 and 381GWh in 2027 [1] - The company's global market share in power batteries is expected to remain stable or increase, supported by its technological and scale advantages [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2023 was 400.917 billion RMB, a 22% YoY increase, with net profit reaching 44.121 billion RMB, up 43.6% YoY [2] - For 2024-2026, the company's net profit is forecasted to be 49.769/57.089/65.104 billion RMB, with YoY growth rates of 12.8%/14.7%/14.0% [2][3] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 11.31/12.98/14.80 RMB, with a dynamic PE ratio of 17/15/13 times [1] Market Position and Growth - The company's power battery revenue in 2023 was 285.253 billion RMB, a 21% YoY increase, with sales volume reaching 321GWh, up 33% YoY [21] - Energy storage battery revenue in 2023 was 59.901 billion RMB, a 33% YoY increase, with sales volume reaching 69GWh, up 47% YoY [22] - The company's global power battery market share in 2024 (Jan-May) was 37.5%, maintaining its leading position [46] - In the overseas power battery market, the company's market share reached 26.9% in 2024 (Jan-May), surpassing LG Energy Solution [57] Technological Advantages - The company's R&D investment in 2023 was 18.36 billion RMB, an 18% YoY increase, with R&D personnel accounting for 18% of total employees [63] - The company has launched innovative products such as Shenxing battery (40 fast charging), Shenxing PLUS battery (1000km range with 4C fast charging), and M3P battery [65] - The company has developed advanced battery technologies including CTP (Cell to Pack) and CIIC (Cell to Chassis) integration, with volume utilization rates reaching 72%-75% [68][69] Global Expansion - The company has established production bases in Germany and Hungary, with a total planned capacity exceeding 100GWh [1] - The company is actively cooperating with overseas customers through technology licensing models, such as the partnership with Ford for a 20GWh battery plant [74][75] - The company aims to achieve carbon neutrality in core operations by 2025 and across the entire value chain by 2035, with four zero-carbon factories already in operation [77][78] Industry Trends - Global new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 16.11 million units in 2024 and grow to 23.04 million units by 2027 [39] - The global power battery demand is projected to reach 1002GWh in 2024 and grow to 1476GWh by 2027 [42] - The global energy storage battery demand is forecasted to be 231GWh in 2024 and increase to 381GWh by 2027 [43] - The battery industry is experiencing increasing concentration, with the top 5 companies accounting for 75.3% of the global power battery market in 2024 (Jan-May) [46]