POP MART(HK:09992) Guohai Securities·2024-07-21 08:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is expected to significantly exceed market expectations for H1 2024, with projected revenue growth of no less than 55% year-on-year and profit growth of no less than 90% [4][5] - The company's overseas expansion and product category diversification are key catalysts for growth [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Performance Forecast - The company anticipates H1 2024 revenue of approximately 4.39 billion RMB and profit exceeding 910 million RMB, driven by enhanced product offerings and global brand recognition [5] - The net profit margin is projected to be around 20.6%, up from 16.8% in H1 2023 [5] Overseas Expansion - The company is expanding its overseas store presence, with new openings in Thailand, Korea, and Europe, aiming for 130-140 stores by the end of 2024 [6] - Higher pricing and gross margins in overseas markets are expected to contribute to over 3 billion RMB in overseas revenue [6] Product Development - New product categories are being launched, with strong sales performance noted for recent releases [7] - The company has introduced 43 new blind box products in H1 2024, maintaining a steady release schedule [8] E-commerce Performance - The company reported impressive sales growth during the 618 shopping festival, with significant increases in transactions across various platforms [9] - The total GMV from Douyin accounts reached 377 million RMB in H1 2024, up from 263 million RMB in the same period last year [9] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 9.63 billion, 12.65 billion, and 15.35 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profits of 2.04 billion, 2.71 billion, and 3.28 billion RMB [10][11] - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of around 20% in 2024 [11]