Investment Rating - The report downgrades the stock rating to "Hold" from "Buy" due to a challenging outlook for the second half of 2024 and high valuation concerns [2]. Core Views - The company has issued a profit warning for the first half of 2024, with expected net profit of approximately 67 million RMB, a 70% decline year-on-year [2]. - The same-store sales growth (SSSG) for the second quarter of 2024 has worsened, with declines of 18% for Tai Er, 37% for Song, and 13% for JMJ, compared to previous quarter declines [2]. - The report anticipates continued risks in the near future, including potential slowdowns in store expansion and ongoing declines in same-store sales [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for FY24E is projected at 7,128 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [3]. - Net profit for FY24E is expected to be 209.9 million RMB, reflecting a significant decline of 56.9% compared to FY23A [3]. - The report revises net profit estimates for FY24E to FY26E down by 69% to 57% [2][4]. Revenue Adjustments - The revenue forecast for FY24E has been adjusted down by 13.5% compared to previous estimates, with a new projection of 7,128 million RMB [4]. - The gross profit margin for FY24E is expected to be 63.3%, slightly lower than previous estimates [4]. Market Valuation - The target price is set at 3.59 HKD, down from a previous target of 8.39 HKD, reflecting a 5.3% potential upside from the current price of 3.41 HKD [2]. - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 23 times FY24E earnings, which is considered high given the expected sales growth of 6% and a significant decline in net profit [2][6]. Operational Insights - The company plans to implement new business models, including franchising and satellite stores, to improve performance [2]. - Management is focusing on menu improvements, pricing strategies, and employee incentive programs to enhance operational efficiency [2].
九毛九：我们认为在 2Q24 错过后的 2H24E 存在风险