FAST PRINT(002436) 光大证券·2024-07-22 13:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing the long-term growth potential of its FCBGA packaging substrate business [2][3] Core Views - The PCB industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by AI, high-speed networks, and smart automotive industries, with high-end markets such as high-layer PCBs, HDI boards, and packaging substrates expected to outperform the overall industry [2] - The company is strategically investing in its FCBGA packaging substrate business, with significant progress in yield improvement and capacity expansion, positioning it to compete with leading overseas manufacturers [2] - The company's traditional PCB business and semiconductor business are both key growth drivers, with a focus on high-end markets and expanding customer relationships [2] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 5,354 million yuan in 2022 to 8,423 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 16.36% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 526 million yuan in 2022 to 670 million yuan in 2026, despite a significant downward revision for 2024 and 2025 due to increased expenses and capacity ramp-up [3][4] - The company's ROE is forecasted to improve from 8.04% in 2022 to 10.67% in 2026, reflecting enhanced profitability [4] Market and Industry Outlook - The global PCB industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.4% from 2023 to 2028, with high-layer PCBs, HDI boards, and packaging substrates expected to grow at 7.8%, 6.2%, and 8.8% respectively [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from structural opportunities in downstream industries such as communication equipment, industrial control, and semiconductor applications [2] Operational Highlights - The company has achieved significant yield improvements in its FCBGA packaging substrate business, with low-layer board yields reaching 90% and high-layer board yields exceeding 85%, narrowing the gap with leading overseas manufacturers [2] - The company has completed the first phase of capacity construction at its Zhuhai and Guangzhou factories, with product certification and overseas customer expansion progressing as planned [2] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 30 in 2022 to 24 in 2026, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [4] - The PB ratio is expected to decline from 2.4 in 2022 to 2.5 in 2026, reflecting a more favorable valuation relative to book value [4]