三一重能：有望受益于海上+海外市场开拓

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][9] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of offshore and overseas markets, with a significant increase in large megawatt model sales contributing to revenue growth [4][5] - The company achieved a revenue of 14.939 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.21%, and a net profit of 2.007 billion yuan, up 21.78% year-on-year [4][6] - The global wind power market is projected to grow, with an expected CAGR of 9.4% from 2023 to 2028, and the company is well-positioned to capture market share [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue was 14.939 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.21% and a net profit of 2.007 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.78% increase [6][9] - The company forecasts revenues of 17.286 billion yuan in 2024 and 19.770 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding net profits of 2.280 billion yuan and 2.649 billion yuan [6][11] Product Segmentation - The revenue breakdown for 2023 shows that wind turbine sales accounted for 80.47% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 15.45% [4] - The share of large megawatt models (5.XMW and above) in revenue increased to 58.76%, up 23.14 percentage points year-on-year, driven by industry trends towards larger and smarter wind turbines [4][5] Market Outlook - The company has a robust order backlog, with a total of 15.89 GW of orders as of the end of 2023, and is expected to benefit from the growing offshore wind market [5][9] - The global wind power market is anticipated to add 182 GW of new capacity by 2028, with a significant portion of this growth occurring in offshore wind, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 27.5% [4][5] Valuation - The company is assigned a valuation range of 26.04 to 33.48 yuan per share based on a PE ratio of 14-18x for 2024 [9][10]