LIHUA(SZ:300761) GF SECURITIES·2024-07-23 07:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 30.32 CNY per share, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [11][17]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a significant turnaround in Q2, with a projected net profit of approximately 5.5-6.0 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 193%-201%. The Q2 net profit is estimated to be around 4.7-5.2 billion CNY, driven by lower breeding costs and higher livestock prices [3][16]. - The company’s yellow chicken output has shown steady growth, with Q2 production reaching approximately 120 million birds, a year-on-year increase of about 10%. The average selling price for yellow chicken was around 13.5 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year [16]. - The scale of pig farming is rapidly increasing, with Q2 pig output estimated at 242,000 heads, an 88% year-on-year increase. The average price for pigs was approximately 16.9 CNY per kilogram, up 14% year-on-year [4][16]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2022 was 14.447 billion CNY, with projections of 15.354 billion CNY for 2023 and 17.130 billion CNY for 2024, indicating a growth rate of 29.8% in 2022 and a more modest 6.3% in 2023 [5][21]. - The EBITDA for 2022 was 1.719 billion CNY, with a significant drop to 472 million CNY in 2023, but expected to rebound to 1.929 billion CNY in 2024 [5][21]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 891 million CNY in 2022, projected to be -437 million CNY in 2023, and expected to recover to 1.255 billion CNY in 2024 [5][21]. Profitability Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.26 billion CNY, 1.71 billion CNY, and 2.30 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.52 CNY, 2.07 CNY, and 2.78 CNY [16][21].