ASML Holding(ASML) 华创证券·2024-07-23 07:31Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommend" and remains unchanged [4] Core Views - ASML's Q2 2024 performance exceeded guidance, driven by strong demand in the semiconductor industry, particularly from AI-related sectors [1][2] - The company expects stronger performance in H2 2024 compared to H1, with the semiconductor industry continuing to recover from the downturn [2][18] - AI, energy transition, and electrification are identified as long-term growth drivers, with the industry expected to enter an upward cycle in 2025 [2][18] Performance Summary Overall Performance - Q2 2024 revenue reached €6.243 billion (QoQ +18.01%, YoY -9.55%), slightly above the guidance range of €5.7-6.2 billion [8] - Gross margin was 51.5% (QoQ +0.5pct, YoY +0.2pct), exceeding the guidance of 50-51% [8] - Equipment sales contributed €4.8 billion, while installed base management revenue was €1.48 billion, slightly above the guidance of €1.4 billion [8] Order and Shipment Details - Q2 2024 equipment orders totaled €5.567 billion, with EUV orders at €2.5 billion and non-EUV orders at €3.1 billion [11] - 73% of orders came from logic customers, while 27% were from memory customers [11] - The company delivered 8 EUV systems in Q2 2024 [11] Revenue Breakdown - Equipment sales in Q2 2024 were €4.761 billion (QoQ +20.05%, YoY -15.08%), with ArFi and EUV technologies contributing 50% and 31% respectively [14] - By region, 49% of revenue came from Mainland China, 28% from South Korea, and 11% from Taiwan [14] - A total of 100 lithography systems were sold in Q2 2024, including 8 EUV systems and 32 ArFi systems [14] Company Guidance Q3 2024 Guidance - Expected Q3 2024 revenue is between €6.7-7.3 billion, with installed base management revenue around €1.4 billion [16] - Gross margin is projected to be 50-51% [16] Full-Year 2024 Guidance - Total revenue for 2024 is expected to be similar to 2023, with a slightly lower gross margin [16] - The company anticipates H2 2024 performance to be significantly stronger than H1, driven by the semiconductor industry's recovery [18] Demand and Supply Outlook Demand Outlook - Logic customers are still digesting the capacity added over the past year, with demand slightly lower than 2023 [18] - Memory customer demand is expected to grow compared to 2023, driven by DRAM technology upgrades such as DDR5 and HBM [18] - AI is identified as the primary driver of semiconductor industry recovery, with strong demand expected to continue into 2025 and 2026 [22][35] Supply Outlook - The company delivered a new batch of NXE:3800E systems in Q2 2024 and is increasing production capacity as planned [19] - Most shipments in H2 2024 will be 3800E systems, with the second High NA EUV system delivered in Q2 2024 [19] - The company aims to achieve a production capacity of 600 DUV and 90 EUV systems, with a medium-term goal of producing 20 High NA EUV systems [25] Key Highlights from Earnings Call Order Composition and Future Outlook - 73% of Q2 2024 orders were related to logic, with no High NA EUV orders in the quarter [20] - The company maintains its 2025 revenue assumption of €30-40 billion [20] Impact of Export Controls - The company continues to see strong demand from Mainland China for mature semiconductor processes [21] - Export controls have not significantly impacted the company's operations, and it remains compliant with US and Dutch regulations [21][27] High NA EUV and AI-Driven Demand - High NA EUV systems are priced at over €350 million each, with strong customer interest and initial data meeting expectations [26][34] - AI is driving demand for both logic and memory, with HBM contributing to increased wafer demand [22][35] Capacity and Revenue Growth - The company expects Q4 2024 revenue to exceed €9 billion, driven by deferred revenue from 3800E systems and strong demand growth [29] - The company is on track to achieve its production capacity goals, with High NA EUV systems expected to contribute significantly in 2025 [25][37]