Rockchip(603893) 海通证券·2024-07-24 06:01Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Rockchip Microelectronics [2] Core Views - Rockchip Microelectronics is expected to achieve significant growth in net profit attributable to the parent company in the first half of 2024, with a projected increase of 543.15% to 686.29% YoY, reaching between 159.5 million yuan and 195 million yuan [4] - The company continues to penetrate various product lines in the AIoT sector, with breakthroughs in automotive electronics, machine vision, industrial applications, education, and consumer electronics [4] - Rockchip maintains a high R&D investment, with approximately 20% of revenue allocated to R&D for 10 consecutive years, focusing on edge and end-side AIoT chips in 2024 [4] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow by 26.8% YoY in 2024, reaching 2.706 billion yuan, with further growth of 26.8% and 26.9% projected for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6] - Net profit is forecasted to increase by 170.9% YoY in 2024, reaching 365 million yuan, with continued growth of 51.9% and 26.0% in 2025 and 2026 [6] - Gross margin is expected to stabilize at around 35.2% to 35.3% from 2024 to 2026 [6] Valuation and EPS Forecast - The report forecasts EPS for Rockchip Microelectronics at 0.87 yuan, 1.33 yuan, and 1.67 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - A PS valuation range of 12-13x is applied for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 77.65-84.12 yuan [5] Market Performance - Rockchip's stock has shown strong performance with absolute gains of 8.7%, 19.0%, and 22.2% over the past 1, 2, and 3 months, respectively [3] - Relative gains compared to the CSI 300 index were 10.3%, 24.6%, and 24.0% over the same periods [3] Industry Comparison - Comparable companies in the industry, such as Cambricon and ASR Microelectronics, show varying PS ratios, with Cambricon at 72.4x and ASR at 4.6x for 2023 [7] - The average PS ratio for comparable companies is 27.0x for 2023 and 16.6x for 2024 [7]