Raycus(300747) 华创证券·2024-07-24 12:01Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 18.88 RMB [46][48] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic fiber laser manufacturer with vertical integration capabilities in the industry chain, and it is actively expanding into high-power and ultrafast laser markets [46] - The company's revenue grew from 1.462 billion RMB in 2018 to 3.68 billion RMB in 2023, with a CAGR of 20.27% [46] - The company's market share in the domestic fiber laser market was approximately 26.8% in 2022 [46] - The company's ultrafast laser business has high growth potential, with revenue increasing from 24 million RMB in 2019 to 69 million RMB in 2023, with a CAGR of 29.41% [10][46] Key Assumptions, Valuation, and Profit Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to reach 4.352 billion RMB, 5.16 billion RMB, and 6.13 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.3%, 18.5%, and 18.8% [43] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 335 million RMB, 424 million RMB, and 535 million RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 54.4%, 26.3%, and 26.0% [43] - The company's EPS is expected to be 0.59 RMB, 0.75 RMB, and 0.95 RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [43] Business Segments - Continuous fiber laser: Revenue is expected to be 3.557 billion RMB, 4.269 billion RMB, and 5.122 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20% and a gross margin of 25% [5] - Pulsed fiber laser: Revenue is expected to be 482 million RMB, 530 million RMB, and 583 million RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10% and a gross margin of 28%, 30%, and 30% [6] - Ultrafast laser: Revenue is expected to be 96 million RMB, 134 million RMB, and 188 million RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 40% and a gross margin of 49% [136] Industry and Market Analysis - The domestic fiber laser market size grew from 7.74 billion RMB in 2018 to 13.59 billion RMB in 2023, with a CAGR of 11.92% [46] - The ultrafast laser market in China grew from 2.74 billion RMB in 2020 to 4.02 billion RMB in 2023, with a CAGR of 13.36% [24][46] - The global fiber laser market size is expected to grow from 3.5 billion USD in 2022 to 4.93 billion USD in 2027, with a CAGR of 7.1% [123] Company's Competitive Advantages - The company has achieved vertical integration in the upstream of the fiber laser industry chain, including semiconductor pump sources, special optical fibers, fiber couplers, laser power combiners, and other core components [27][46] - The company has developed China's first 10kW, 100kW, and 120kW high-power fiber lasers, and its market share in the 20kW and 30kW high-power laser markets is significantly ahead of competitors [46] - The company acquired a 51% stake in Guoshen Optoelectronics (Shanghai) in 2019, entering the ultrafast laser market, which has high growth potential [10][46]