BAIRUN CORPORATION(SZ:002568) Orient Securities·2024-07-25 02:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.08 CNY per share, based on a calculated equity value of 20 billion CNY [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on its "358" product matrix (3%, 5%, and 8% alcohol content) to target specific consumer groups, with stable sales in the "slightly tipsy" segment and over 5% growth in the "strong refreshing" category in Q1 2024 despite a high base [1]. - The company is actively exploring ready-to-drink channels and accelerating market penetration in lower-tier cities, expecting significant revenue growth from these initiatives in 2024 [1]. - A new whiskey product line is set to launch in Q4 2024, which is anticipated to become a new growth driver for the company [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 3,687 million CNY, reflecting a 12.9% year-on-year growth, with further increases expected in subsequent years [3]. - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 908 million CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.2% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.86 CNY in 2024, increasing to 1.19 CNY by 2026 [3][7]. Financial Ratios - The gross margin is projected to improve from 66.7% in 2023 to 68.7% by 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [3]. - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 24.6% in 2024, with a slight increase to 25.2% by 2026 [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 20.7% in 2023 to 23.2% in 2026, reflecting improved efficiency in generating profits from equity [3].