山西汾酒：回应分歧，景气延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu, with a target price of 350 CNY [5][21]. Core Views - The report addresses market concerns regarding the company's product structure and inventory performance, asserting that the impact on profit growth is limited due to a focus on mid-tier products and a normal repayment ratio of approximately 20% in Q2 [1][2]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of around 20% for the year, with a strong emphasis on maintaining channel profits and enhancing operational efficiency through digital transformation initiatives [1][2]. - The product structure is seen as advantageous in the current demand environment, with a focus on high-end products and strategic adjustments to meet consumer trends [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 31,928 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 10,438 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 28.9% [3][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at 10.71 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17 [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The company has experienced a 30% decline in stock price since May, attributed to industry-wide price drops and concerns over Q2 performance. However, the report suggests that the overall market conditions remain stable, with a healthy inventory level and consistent pricing across product lines [1][2]. - The company is actively working to improve channel communication and efficiency, anticipating a significant improvement in the third quarter [1][2]. Strategic Initiatives - The "Fenxiang Liuyu" channel reform is a key focus for the company, aimed at enhancing channel profitability and operational efficiency. The company plans to hold meetings with distributors to strengthen relationships and improve execution [1][2]. - The management is committed to a long-term strategy that prioritizes market health while gradually increasing market share, particularly in the southern regions [1][2].