Tesla(US:TSLA) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-07-25 04:01Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Tesla (TSLA.US) with a target price of $285 [2][9]. Core Insights - Short-term pressure on automotive gross margins is noted, while new model progress remains stable. Full Self-Driving (FSD) is expected to launch in China and Europe by the end of the year, with ongoing advancements in autonomous driving technology [1][6]. - The automotive business generated $19.9 billion in revenue for Q2, a year-over-year decrease of 7%, but exceeded expectations due to significant carbon credit revenue [6][9]. - The introduction of lower-priced models is anticipated in the first half of 2025, with the Roadster also set to begin production in 2025 [6][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - Automotive gross margins are under pressure, with Q2 automotive revenue at $19.9 billion, down 7% year-over-year. The gross margin for automotive sales, excluding carbon credits, was 13.9%, reflecting a decline due to price reductions [6][9]. - Q2 deliveries reached 444,000 units, surpassing expectations, while production was limited to 411,000 units due to inventory reduction efforts [6][9]. 2. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for FY2024E-FY2026E have been slightly adjusted to $103 billion, $121.3 billion, and $137.4 billion, respectively. Corresponding net profit estimates are adjusted to $9 billion, $13.8 billion, and $17.2 billion [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential in energy storage and robotics, alongside the anticipated rollout of Robotaxi services [6][9].