POP MART(09992) 海通证券·2024-07-25 06:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of no less than 55% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, with net profit growth of no less than 90% [4] - The company has seen rapid revenue growth outside mainland China, with significant increases in retail stores and robot stores in regions such as Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas [4] - Continuous product innovation and category expansion have contributed to revenue growth, with new product lines being developed and launched [4] - The company has optimized product costs and strengthened expense management, leading to improved profitability [4] - The projected net profits for 2024 and 2025 are 18.24 billion and 24.29 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 68.5% and 33.2% [4][6] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.345 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 36.4% [5] - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 1.082 billion, showing a significant increase of 127.5% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin for 2023 is projected to be 61.3%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points from the previous year [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 0.80, 1.36, and 1.81 respectively [6][12] - The company’s revenue from offline channels is expected to grow significantly, with a projected growth rate of 64.68% in 2024 [7][8] Valuation - The company is expected to have a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 27.0 and 20.3 for 2024 and 2025 respectively, with a target valuation range of 40.80 to 43.52 HKD [4][9]