宇通客车：业绩优秀，布局自动驾驶

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 1.55 billion to 1.79 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 230% to 280%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 1.32 billion to 1.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 300% to 360% [4] - The company sold 4,743 buses in June, a slight increase of 0.36% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 36% in sales for the first half of the year. Large bus sales in June were 2,728 units, up approximately 10% year-on-year, while medium bus sales were 1,433 units, down about 18% year-on-year [4] - The company leads the industry in bus exports, with 6,500 units exported in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 58.27%, capturing a significant market share [4] - The company has made significant strides in autonomous driving and vehicle-road collaboration, with its autonomous bus products operating safely for over five years and covering more than 13 million kilometers [4] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to be 33.14 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits of 3.01 billion yuan, and earnings per share (EPS) of 1.36 yuan. The expected revenue for 2025 and 2026 is 39.04 billion yuan and 46.09 billion yuan, with net profits of 3.66 billion yuan and 4.41 billion yuan, respectively [5][6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 25.6% in 2023 to 26.1% in 2026, indicating a stable profitability outlook [8] - The company’s return on equity is projected to increase from 13.1% in 2023 to 19.3% in 2026, reflecting improved operational efficiency [8] Valuation - The company is expected to trade at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16, 13, and 11 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The reasonable value range for the stock is estimated to be between 28.57 and 31.29 yuan based on a P/E ratio of 21-23 times [5][6]