华能水电：电站投产带来短期弹性，风光水储一体化发展打开长期空间

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Huadian Power with a "Buy" rating, indicating an expected investment return outperforming the market benchmark by 15% or more over the next 6-12 months [16] Core Views Financial Performance - In 2023, Huadian Power achieved operating revenue of 23.461 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.51% year-over-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.58% to 7.638 billion yuan [4] - For Q1 2024, operating revenue grew 3.58% year-over-year to 4.42 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders surging 17.25% to 1.065 billion yuan [4] - The company's financial expenses decreased by 14.14% in 2023 due to optimized debt financing structure and cost control measures [4] Business Development - Huadian Power is the sole platform for hydropower business integration within the Huadian Group, responsible for developing hydropower and new energy resources along the Lancang River [5] - As of 2023, the company's installed capacity reached 27.53 GW, including 25.6 GW of hydropower and 1.93 GW of new energy [5] - The company is implementing a "wind-solar-hydro-storage" integrated development strategy, planning to build a "double ten-million-kilowatt" clean energy base in Yunnan and Tibet during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] Market Environment - Yunnan Province's power demand has been growing rapidly, with electricity consumption increasing by 11.7% in 2022 and 5.1% in 2023 [6] - The company's average settlement price increased by 2.96% in 2023, and tight power supply-demand conditions in Yunnan are expected to continue supporting electricity price increases [6] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.33 billion yuan, 9.97 billion yuan, and 10.8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-over-year growth rates of 22.2%, 6.9%, and 8.3% [7] - As of July 23, 2024, the company's stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 22.96x, 21.47x, and 19.83x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7] Valuation and Investment Thesis - The company's hydropower business provides stable cash flow to support large-scale capital expenditures [7] - Short-term performance elasticity is expected from the commissioning of Tuoba and Yingliangbao hydropower stations [7] - Long-term growth potential is supported by the integrated development strategy of wind, solar, hydro, and storage [7]