ASMPT(00522) 开源证券·2024-07-25 09:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for ASMPT is maintained as "Buy" [2][4]. Core Insights - The SMT business is underperforming, and while TCB is expected to drive profit improvement in HBM applications, the overall recovery in 2024 is anticipated to be weaker than expected [4][5]. - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2024-2025 down to HKD 6 billion and HKD 14 billion, respectively, due to the underperformance of the SMT business [4]. - TCB equipment is expected to see rapid growth, particularly in logic and storage applications, with significant orders already received from HBM customers [6]. Financial Summary - For Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of USD 427 million, a 6.5% increase quarter-on-quarter, driven by advanced packaging and consumer electronics market recovery [5]. - The company expects Q3 2024 revenue to be in the range of USD 370-430 million, indicating a potential 6.4% decline at the median [5]. - The projected financial metrics for 2024-2026 include: - Revenue: HKD 12.936 billion (2024E), HKD 15.585 billion (2025E), HKD 18.505 billion (2026E) - Net Profit: HKD 550 million (2024E), HKD 1.418 billion (2025E), HKD 2.677 billion (2026E) - EPS: HKD 1.3 (2024E), HKD 3.4 (2025E), HKD 6.5 (2026E) [7].