POP MART(09992) 华兴证券·2024-07-25 10:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price raised to HK37.65 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has reported strong preliminary earnings for 1H24, with revenue and net profit both showing significant growth, attributed to successful overseas expansion and improved operational leverage [1][2]. - Revenue is expected to grow by no less than 55% year-on-year, while net profit (excluding fair value changes of financial assets) is projected to increase by no less than 90% [1][2]. - The company’s overseas market revenue is anticipated to grow by 241% year-on-year, driven by a substantial increase in store count and strong same-store sales growth [1][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E have been adjusted upwards by 16.5%, 17.7%, and 18.8% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected overseas expansion and domestic sales [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E have been increased by 41.1%, 46.4%, and 56.1% respectively, due to improved cost control and operational efficiency [2][4]. - The adjusted EPS for 2024E is projected at RMB 1.50, increasing to RMB 1.86 for 2025E and RMB 2.21 for 2026E [1][2]. Valuation - The valuation method used is the P/E ratio, with a new target multiple of 20.3 times the 2025 P/E, which is a premium of 20% over the average P/E of international peers [4]. - The report indicates that the current trading multiple of 18.4 times the 2025 P/E is reasonable compared to industry peers [4][5].