Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The current consumer environment is weak, putting pressure on the company's same-store sales and expansion efforts, with expectations for stabilization and recovery [2]. - The forecast for adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 has been revised down to RMB 198 million, RMB 286 million, and RMB 358 million, reflecting a growth rate of -45%, 44.5%, and 25% respectively [3]. - The company is expected to experience a double-digit decline in same-store sales in H1 due to a weak external consumption environment, with store numbers remaining stable compared to the previous year [3]. - The company has launched the first industry standard for "Fresh Cut Fruit Raw Materials" to enhance brand effect and fulfill social responsibility [3]. - A long-term perspective indicates that organizational structure optimization and clear strategic direction are expected to lay a foundation for sustainable development [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 10,124 million, with a year-on-year decline of 11.1% [6]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 198 million, down 45.3% from the previous year [6]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 26.51 in 2024 to 8.29 in 2026, indicating a potential increase in value [6]. Market Data - The current stock price is HKD 1.87, with a 52-week price range of HKD 1.87 to HKD 6.56 [4]. - The current market capitalization is HKD 2,971 million [4].
百果园集团更新报告：同店及拓店承压，静待企稳修复