Baosight(600845) 开源证券·2024-07-26 01:30Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Baoxin Software (600845 SH) [2][3] Core Views - The Chinese government has allocated approximately 300 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to promote equipment renewal, which is expected to significantly boost demand for Baoxin Software's domestically produced intelligent manufacturing products [3] - Recent policies emphasize technological innovation in state-owned enterprises, providing strong support for Baoxin Software's development in domestic substitution [4] - Baoxin Software is a leading domestic large-scale PLC manufacturer with a comprehensive layout in the domestic intelligent manufacturing industry chain, positioning it well for the domestic substitution trend [5] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 14 083 million yuan in 2024E to 20 380 million yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 20 2% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 3 068 million yuan in 2024E to 5 294 million yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 31 4% [6] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from 38 3% in 2024E to 43 3% in 2026E [6] - ROE is projected to rise from 24 5% in 2024E to 32 1% in 2026E [6] Valuation Metrics - Current P E ratio stands at 29 4x for 2024E, expected to decrease to 17 1x by 2026E [6] - P B ratio is 7 5x for 2024E, projected to decline to 5 7x by 2026E [6] - EV EBITDA ratio is 23 1x for 2024E, estimated to drop to 13 4x by 2026E [6] Industry Position - Baoxin Software is a rare domestic leader in large-scale PLC, a critical component in industrial control systems [5] - The company has developed a comprehensive product portfolio including domestic large-scale PLC SCADA industrial control software, information software, AI models, robotics, and AIDC [5] - The domestic substitution trend in the intelligent manufacturing sector presents significant growth opportunities for Baoxin Software [5]