TSMC(US:TSM) Great Wall Securities·2024-07-26 03:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [10]. Core Insights - TSMC has confirmed a growth trend in the semiconductor industry and has raised its revenue growth guidance for the year to approximately 25% [5]. - The company reported Q2 2024 revenue of NT$673.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.1%, and a net profit of NT$247.85 billion, up 36.3% year-on-year [1]. - Advanced process technology (3nm and 5nm) demand has significantly contributed to revenue, with high-performance computing (HPC) now accounting for over 50% of revenue [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue (in million USD): - 2022: 73,670 - 2023: 70,599 - 2024E: 88,851 - 2025E: 110,815 - 2026E: 133,985 [1] - Net Profit (in million USD): - 2022: 32,311 - 2023: 27,816 - 2024E: 34,319 - 2025E: 43,599 - 2026E: 53,179 [1] - The company expects a long-term gross margin of 53% or higher, driven by strong demand and pricing power in advanced packaging and process technologies [2]. Market Dynamics - The advanced process technology utilization rate has reached 100%, prompting TSMC to increase production capacity and adjust pricing for certain products [2]. - The semiconductor manufacturing market is projected to grow by approximately 10% in 2024, with TSMC's revenue growth rate expected to be around 25% [5]. - TSMC plans to increase its capital expenditure budget to $30-32 billion to support future growth trends, particularly in AI and high-end smartphones [2].