山西汾酒：汾酒观察系列报告一：当前时点如何看汾酒

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7][38] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to maintain strong growth momentum due to a solid foundation in both product and regional dimensions, with potential space gradually being realized [2][7][38] - The estimated EPS for 2024 and 2025 is projected to be 10.91 and 13.22 CNY, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17 and 14 times based on the latest closing price [2][7][38] Product Analysis - The company has achieved a full price range layout, with the "Qinghua 20" product becoming the largest single product, surpassing 10 billion CNY in sales in 2023 [4][12][20] - The company has three main advantages in the product segment: 1. Aroma advantage: Leading in the clear aroma category, especially in the mid-to-high-end market with no direct competitors [14][15] 2. Brand advantage: As one of the four famous liquors in China, it has a deep brand heritage and consumer base [15] 3. Matrix advantage: The company is one of the few that has a full price range layout with multiple strong products, enhancing its risk resistance [15] Regional Analysis - The company has established a national layout, with 2023 provincial income of 12.084 billion CNY and out-of-province income of 19.659 billion CNY, with out-of-province income growing faster than provincial income since 2019 [5][25] - The out-of-province income growth rate in 2023 was approximately 23%, while provincial income growth was about 20% [5][25] - The company has formed a tiered layout of "Shanxi base - surrounding Shanxi market - East China, South China market" [25] Management Capability - The company is implementing a "123 program" for its revival, focusing on high-quality development, with two phases planned until 2030 [6][32] - Management capabilities are continuously improving through organizational adjustments and digitalization [6][33] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth momentum, with projected revenues of 38.78 billion CNY and 46.70 billion CNY for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with growth rates of 21.5% and 20.4% [38][41] - The estimated net profit for 2024 and 2025 is projected to be 13.31 billion CNY and 16.13 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 27.5% and 21.2% [41][42]