CSICPCL(SH:600482) GF SECURITIES·2024-07-26 10:01Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a current price of 23.25 CNY and a fair value of 24.41 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the special government bond funding will support the replacement of old vessels, which is expected to benefit the leading ship power company. The policy aims to accelerate the retirement and replacement of old, high-energy-consuming and high-emission vessels with new energy and clean energy vessels [1]. - The report notes that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the new subsidy policies aimed at promoting the replacement of old vessels, particularly in the inland and coastal shipping sectors. The company’s products include medium-speed engines and integrated electric propulsion systems, which align with the government's green initiatives [1]. - The earnings forecast estimates the company's EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.54 CNY, 0.77 CNY, and 1.17 CNY per share, respectively. The report maintains a fair value estimate of 24.41 CNY per share, corresponding to a 45 times PE valuation for 2024 [1]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 38,280 million CNY in 2022 to 61,244 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 13.3% [2][6]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase significantly from 1,537 million CNY in 2022 to 5,743 million CNY in 2026, indicating strong operational performance [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 336 million CNY in 2022 to 2,569 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [2][6]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in the company's profitability metrics, with the net profit margin expected to increase from 1.0% in 2022 to 6.4% in 2026 [6]. Investment Insights - The report emphasizes the company's leading position in the ship power sector and its commitment to high-end, intelligent, and green development, which aligns with national policies promoting environmental sustainability [1]. - The anticipated demand for the replacement of old vessels and the transition to new energy vessels is expected to drive growth for the company, enhancing its market share and profitability [1].