BABA(09988) 国信证券·2024-07-26 10:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that external competition is easing, and initiatives like 88VIP and full-site promotions are expected to drive sustainable growth for the main platform [2]. - The Taobao business remains a core driver of the group's stock price, contributing 45% of the company's revenue and 118% of adjusted EBITA profit for FY2024 [6][16]. - The report notes that the e-commerce landscape is evolving, with significant market share shifts towards platforms like Pinduoduo and Douyin, indicating a need for Alibaba to focus on core competencies to regain growth [34][56]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Taobao is the largest e-commerce platform in China, generating significant revenue through commissions and advertising fees, with a monetization rate of approximately 3.7% in 2023 [9][10]. Business Model - The business model primarily revolves around a platform approach, with Tmall and Taobao contributing equally to GMV, while Tmall focuses on brand-driven sales and Taobao emphasizes product variety [100]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the e-commerce market share has shifted from a "one super, two strong, two catch-up" structure to a "one super, one strong, two catch-up" structure, with Pinduoduo and Douyin gaining significant market share [35][56]. User Insights - Taobao has a large user base, with nearly 1 billion annual purchasing users, and the average annual spending per user is approximately 8,436 yuan [30]. Financial Performance - The report provides historical GMV data, showing a consistent growth trend from 71.75 billion yuan in 2017 to 154.26 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12% in 2023 [36]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by increasing pressure from emerging platforms, necessitating Alibaba to enhance its service offerings and user experience to maintain market leadership [34][56]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that with the introduction of 88VIP, there is potential for incremental GMV growth as member spending levels are expected to rise over time [94][144].