Kanion Pharmaceutical(600557) 国投证券·2024-07-28 01:02Investment Rating - The report assigns a Buy-A rating to the company with a 6-month target price of 17.64 yuan, equivalent to a 2024 dynamic P/E ratio of 18x [4][13] Core Views - The company's core product, Reduning Injection, is expected to continue its strong sales growth, while secondary products are poised for accelerated growth [2] - The company's R&D achievements are outstanding, and its sales reforms are worth anticipating [2] - The company is expected to see new sales increments as several products enter the NDA or late-stage clinical phases and are expected to be approved in the coming years [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 4.801 billion yuan, 5.451 billion yuan, and 6.121 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 572 million yuan, 655 million yuan, and 740 million yuan [4] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.98 yuan, 1.13 yuan, and 1.27 yuan, respectively [16] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 10.2% in 2024 to 11.5% in 2026 [16] Operational Highlights - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 74.5%-74.7% from 2024 to 2026 [8] - The company's R&D expenses are forecasted to increase from 758.5 million yuan in 2024 to 967.1 million yuan in 2026, maintaining a high R&D intensity [8] - The company's asset turnover efficiency is expected to improve, with fixed asset turnover days decreasing from 170 days in 2024 to 127 days in 2026 [8] Recent Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.26 billion yuan, down 11.49% YoY, and net profit of 265 million yuan, down 3.73% YoY [11] - The performance pressure is attributed to decreased demand for flu-related products and the impact of ongoing marketing reforms [12] R&D Pipeline - The company has 3 new traditional Chinese medicine drugs submitted for NDA and 2 completing Phase III clinical trials as of H1 2024 [19] - The company maintains high R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 339 million yuan in H1 2024, accounting for 15.01% of revenue [19]