Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Ship Leasing (3877) [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year net profit growth of 21-23% in the first half of 2024, exceeding market expectations, driven by the rising shipping market and an increase in fleet size [4][5]. - The company is the only leasing company affiliated with a shipyard in China, which provides it with a unique advantage in understanding ship operations [5]. - With a projected net profit of 2.2 billion HKD for 2024, the company’s PE ratio is only 4 times, indicating a potential high dividend yield if the dividend payout ratio increases to 50%, which could result in a dividend yield of 12% [5]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 3.626 billion HKD in 2023 to 4.592 billion HKD in 2024, reflecting a 27% increase [6]. - The net profit is expected to rise from 1.912 billion HKD in 2023 to 2.192 billion HKD in 2024, marking a 15% increase [6]. - The PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 4.9 in 2023 to 4.3 in 2024, indicating a low valuation [6]. Fleet and Operations - As of the end of 2023, the company operates a fleet of 128 vessels, with 102 under long-term leasing and 26 under short-term leasing [5][10]. - The company’s short-term leasing business is expected to benefit significantly from the high demand in the refined oil transportation market, with the average freight rates reaching historical highs in the first half of 2024 [5][11]. Capital Expenditure and Dividends - The company has seen a reduction in capital expenditures, with a dividend payout ratio that has started to increase, reaching 39% in 2023 [5][12]. - The company signed 18 new ship orders in 2023, a decrease from the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to future capital expenditures [5][12].
中国船舶租赁：2024上半年业绩快报点评：业绩超预期，潜在高股息