TRIP.COM(09961) 浙商证券·2024-07-28 10:22Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group [4][64]. Core Views - Concerns in the market regarding potential pressure on hotel and flight prices in 2024 and increased competition from local players like Meituan and Douyin are addressed. However, the report argues that Trip.com has high user stickiness, strong consumer spending power, and a deep inventory supply, which positions it well against other OTA platforms [2][9]. - The recovery of outbound tourism is highlighted as a significant growth driver, with Trip.com expected to outperform the industry in this segment due to its localized service advantages and low commission rates [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Trip.com Group is a leading online travel agency (OTA) that offers a comprehensive range of travel services globally, including over 1.2 million accommodation options and partnerships with more than 480 airlines [14][15]. - The company has established a robust business matrix that includes accommodation booking, transportation ticketing, vacation services, and business travel management [20][21]. Industry Analysis - The tourism industry is experiencing a strong recovery, with domestic travel expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2024. The report anticipates that outbound travel will recover to over 80% of 2019 levels [25][26]. - The online travel market's penetration is projected to increase, with online sales expected to reach 76% by 2027 [29][30]. Business Performance and Forecast - Revenue forecasts for Trip.com are set at 52.5 billion, 60.3 billion, and 68.5 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18.0%, 14.8%, and 13.7% [3][62]. - The report predicts net profit for the same years to be 12.285 billion, 14.879 billion, and 17.164 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 23.87%, 21.12%, and 15.36% [3][62]. Competitive Positioning - Trip.com is positioned favorably against competitors like Booking and Expedia due to its lower commission rates and a diversified service offering that includes cross-selling opportunities [57][58]. - The company has a strong user base that is less price-sensitive, which enhances its competitive edge in the market [39][42]. Growth Drivers - The recovery of inbound tourism and the expansion of overseas business are identified as key growth drivers, with Trip.com leveraging its international presence and partnerships to enhance service offerings [54][60]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a well-developed membership system that contributes to customer loyalty and higher spending [45][46].