Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][5]. Core Insights - Ctrip has established significant competitive advantages through supply lock-in and a comprehensive service system, positioning it favorably against both domestic and international competitors [4][5]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 14.8%, 13.8%, and 12.9% for the years 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 612.6 billion, 697.3 billion, and 787.0 billion yuan respectively [5]. - Ctrip's long-term growth potential is enhanced by changes in domestic consumer demand and accelerated international expansion, making its growth trajectory more favorable compared to many trading platforms [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ctrip has a total share capital of 684 million shares, with a market price of 518 HKD, resulting in a market capitalization of 354,067 million HKD [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Ctrip are as follows: 44,562 million yuan in 2023, 53,377 million yuan in 2024, and expected growth to 61,260 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 122% in 2023 and 20% in 2024 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 9,918 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 17,067 million yuan in 2024, but expected to decline slightly to 16,145 million yuan in 2025 [3]. Competitive Positioning - Ctrip's competitive edge is attributed to three main factors: supply lock-in, a differentiated user profile, and high infrastructure barriers due to the nature of travel services [4][5]. - The report highlights that the impact of hotel concentration on OTA market share and take rate is limited, suggesting that Ctrip's market position remains strong despite these changes [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that Ctrip's ecosystem is better positioned than that of international leaders like Booking and Expedia, primarily due to the differences in internet user behavior and the absence of a dominant traffic distributor like Google in China [4][5]. - Ctrip's international business is expected to contribute significantly to its revenue, with outbound tourism and international OTA operations projected to account for one-third of the group's income [12]. Conclusion - Overall, Ctrip's robust competitive advantages, favorable market positioning, and strong financial projections support the "Buy" rating, indicating a positive outlook for investors [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net income of 12.7 billion RMB in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23%, with adjusted EBITDA of 3 billion RMB and an adjusted net profit of 3 billion RMB, up 14% year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations [8] - The international business is expected to continue strong growth in 2025, driven by simplified visa processes and increased international flight availability, with outbound hotel and flight bookings recovering to over 120% of 2019 levels [8] - Domestic tourism demand remains resilient, with inbound tourism contributing to growth, and the company is enhancing user experience through AI tools, leading to significant increases in user engagement [8] - The report anticipates a decline in gross margin due to the increasing contribution of lower-margin international business, but long-term profitability is expected to improve as the company expands its global market presence [8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly lowered, but a new forecast for 2027 has been added, indicating continued confidence in the company's international growth potential [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 53.3 billion RMB in 2024 to 78.5 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.49% [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 17.1 billion RMB in 2024 to 22 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 16.44 in 2024 to 14.19 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][2]. Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q4 2024, achieving the highest profit margin in its history. Q4 revenue reached 12.744 billion yuan, up 23.4%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectation of 19.4%. Non-GAAP net profit was 3.038 billion yuan, up 13.6%, also surpassing the expected 7.5% [8][2]. - The company plans to increase investment to accelerate international business growth, with a focus on capturing market share in overseas travel [2][11]. - The company’s GMV exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, with a revenue increase of 19.7% for the year, and a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 33.9%, reflecting strong operational efficiency despite structural challenges [8][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.744 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 3.038 billion yuan, leading to a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 23.8% [8][11]. - For the full year 2024, the company reported a GMV of over 1.2 trillion yuan, with total revenue of 53.294 billion yuan, marking a 19.7% increase [8][11]. - The company’s Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 31.2%, reflecting a 1.7 percentage point increase year-on-year [8][11]. Business Segments - Q4 2024 saw significant growth in various business segments: accommodation booking revenue was 5.178 billion yuan (+32.7%), transportation ticketing revenue was 4.780 billion yuan (+16.4%), and vacation revenue was 870 million yuan (+23.6%) [10][11]. - The company’s outbound travel bookings exceeded 120% recovery compared to the previous year, indicating a strong rebound in international travel demand [10][11]. Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain a resilient growth trajectory in domestic travel, with projected revenue growth rates of 16.7%, 15.8%, and 15.1% for 2025-2027 [2][11]. - The increase in international business investment is anticipated to enhance profitability in the medium term, despite short-term pressures on profit margins due to increased marketing expenditures [2][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 12.7 billion yuan (yoy +23.3%), operating profit of 2.3 billion yuan (margin of 18.1%), and Non-GAAP net profit of 3 billion yuan (yoy +14%) [4][5] - The company's international business continues to grow rapidly, driven by favorable visa policies, with outbound hotel and flight bookings increasing over 20% compared to the same period in 2019 [5] - The company has announced a new capital return plan, including a share repurchase program of up to 400 million USD and a cash dividend of approximately 200 million USD [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4, the revenue breakdown by business segment includes: - Accommodation booking revenue of 5.2 billion yuan (yoy +32.7%) - Transportation ticketing revenue of 4.8 billion yuan (yoy +16.4%) - Vacation business revenue of 870 million yuan (yoy +23.6%) - Business travel management revenue of 700 million yuan (yoy +10.7%) - Other business revenue of 1.2 billion yuan (yoy +24.9%) [4] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.2 billion yuan, 68.5 billion yuan, and 76.7 billion yuan respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of +15%, +12%, and +12% [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 18.6 billion yuan, 21.8 billion yuan, and 24.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +3%, +17%, and +14% [7] Market Position and Trends - The company is experiencing strong recovery in travel demand, with cross-border flight recovery rates reaching 80% of 2019 levels, and European seat recovery rates at 96% [5] - The company anticipates continued growth in international travel demand due to the further opening of visa policies and ongoing recovery of international capacity [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 12.7 billion yuan (up 23.3% year-over-year), operating profit at 2.3 billion yuan (margin of 18.1%), and Non-GAAP net profit at 3 billion yuan (up 14% year-over-year) [4][5] - The growth in international travel demand, driven by visa-free policies, has significantly boosted the company's performance, with outbound hotel and flight bookings increasing over 20% compared to the same period in 2019 [5] - The company has announced a new capital return plan, including a share repurchase program of up to 400 million USD and a cash dividend totaling approximately 200 million USD [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4, the revenue breakdown by business segment includes: - Accommodation booking revenue of 5.2 billion yuan (up 32.7% year-over-year) - Transportation ticketing revenue of 4.8 billion yuan (up 16.4% year-over-year) - Vacation package revenue of 870 million yuan (up 23.6% year-over-year) - Business travel management revenue of 700 million yuan (up 10.7% year-over-year) - Other business revenue of 1.2 billion yuan (up 24.9% year-over-year) [4] - The company expects revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 61.24 billion yuan, 68.53 billion yuan, and 76.68 billion yuan respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 15%, 12%, and 12% [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 18.64 billion yuan, 21.76 billion yuan, and 24.78 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 3%, 17%, and 14% [7] Market Position and Outlook - The company is experiencing a strong recovery in travel demand, with cross-border flight recovery rates reaching 80% of 2019 levels, and European flight capacity recovery at 96% [5] - The anticipated continued growth in international travel demand is expected to further drive the company's performance in the coming years [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][27]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 2024 performance met expectations, with international business continuing to grow. Q4 revenue reached 12.7 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, while the full-year revenue for 2024 was 53.3 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year. The net profit for 2024 was 17.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 72% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 32.3% [1][11][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 53.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20%. The net profit for the same year was 17.2 billion yuan, marking a 72% increase. The revenue structure is primarily driven by transportation and accommodation, which together account for approximately 80% of total revenue [11][12][14]. Business Segments - Accommodation revenue for 2024 was 21.6 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing revenue reached 20.3 billion yuan, a 10% increase. The vacation segment saw a significant growth of 38% year-on-year, reaching 4.3 billion yuan, driven by international business growth [12][14][24]. International Expansion - The company’s international business is expanding rapidly, with Q4 2024 outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of the same period in 2019. The international business accounted for 10% of total revenue for the year, with a strong focus on the Asia-Pacific market [2][18][24]. AI Integration - The integration of AI technologies is enhancing operational efficiency, with AI customer service improving response times and IT development efficiency. The AI tools, such as TripGenie, have seen significant engagement growth, indicating their potential as new customer acquisition channels [20][24]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 61.6 billion yuan, 68.9 billion yuan, and 76.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 15.6%, 11.9%, and 10.4%. Net profit is expected to reach 17.9 billion yuan, 20.8 billion yuan, and 23.5 billion yuan over the same period [7][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Neutral" for the company, indicating that the expected performance is within a range of -5% to 5% relative to the benchmark index [12]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 81.17 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.67% from 2024 to 2027 [6][8]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve gradually, reaching 82.50% by 2027, indicating strong operational efficiency [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow steadily, with an expected net profit of 19.64 billion in 2026 and 23.31 billion in 2027 [6][8]. Financial Summary - The company's total assets are projected to increase from 242.58 billion in 2024 to 311.55 billion in 2027, demonstrating robust asset growth [6]. - The current ratio is expected to improve significantly from 1.51 in 2024 to 3.59 in 2027, indicating enhanced liquidity [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 26.10 in 2024 to 34.10 in 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [7][8]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from accommodation bookings is expected to grow from 3.48 billion in 2023 to 2.39 billion in 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 20% [4]. - Transportation ticketing revenue is projected to increase from 4.16 billion in 2023 to 5.60 billion in 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 12% [4]. - The revenue from travel resorts is anticipated to grow significantly, with a year-over-year growth rate of 20% expected in 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of HKD 591 (previously HKD 571) and USD 76 (previously USD 73) [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a 4Q24 net revenue of RMB 12.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23%, exceeding market expectations by 5% [2]. - The international business is still in an investment phase, but the long-term growth potential is viewed positively, particularly in overseas markets [1][5]. - The company’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) for its core OTA business reached RMB 1.2 trillion (USD 169 billion), reflecting a 9% increase from the previous year, maintaining its position as the largest OTA globally [3]. Financial Performance - 4Q24 adjusted net profit was RMB 3 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations by 6% [2]. - The company’s gross profit margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 79% year-on-year, while marketing expenses rose by 45% due to increased overseas investments [2][5]. - Revenue projections for 2025 have been slightly adjusted, with expected revenue of RMB 61.7 billion, reflecting a 16% year-on-year growth [6][24]. Business Growth Potential - Domestic tourism is expected to grow by 10% in 2025, with the company leveraging its advantages in hotel ADR and air ticket pricing to outperform the industry [4]. - The international business, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, is projected to contribute significantly to total revenue, with a potential market size 1.5 times that of the domestic market [4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its one-stop service and mobile platform to capture a larger share of the international market [4]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a USD 400 million share buyback plan and a dividend of USD 200 million (USD 0.3 per share), indicating a commitment to delivering stable performance and shareholder returns [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.8 billion RMB in Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 23.5%, exceeding expectations by 3.6% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 was 3 billion RMB, up 13.6% year-over-year, also surpassing expectations by 8.3%, driven by strong growth in international business and inbound travel demand [1][2] - The company is expected to increase its investment in international business over the next two years, which may lead to a slight decline in profit margins in the short term, but this is anticipated to open new growth avenues and greater profit flexibility in the long term [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, the company’s international OTA platform hotel and flight bookings grew over 70% year-over-year, with international business accounting for 14% of total revenue, up from 10% for the full year 2024 [2] - The inbound travel demand saw a 100% year-over-year increase in bookings, benefiting from favorable visa policies [2] Profitability Outlook - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2024 was 79.1%, showing a slight decline due to the increased proportion of lower-margin international business [3] - Management indicated a focus on expanding overseas operations, which may lead to short-term profit margin pressure but is expected to strengthen the company's global positioning and ensure sustainable profit release in the long run [3] Technology Deployment - The management is focusing on the comprehensive deployment of AI technology in business operations, utilizing extensive real-time travel data for personalized travel recommendations and competitive pricing [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 61.3 billion, 71.3 billion, and 82.4 billion RMB, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 19.7 billion, 22.5 billion, and 26 billion RMB [5][12] - The target price for the company's US stock is set at $75.50, while the target price for the Hong Kong stock is HKD 563.70, based on a PE valuation method [5][15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Ctrip Group (9961 HK), with a target price of HKD 605.00, indicating a potential upside of 31.0% from the current price of HKD 462.00 [1][4][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights that increased overseas investments may disrupt short-term profit margins, but there remains room for revenue growth. The company is expected to see significant revenue increases driven by domestic hotel bookings and outbound travel demand [2][7][8]. - The financial outlook for Ctrip Group shows a strong revenue growth trajectory, with projected revenues increasing from RMB 44.56 billion in 2023 to RMB 80.58 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.5% [3][19]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 13.07 billion in 2023 to RMB 24.61 billion in 2027, with a notable increase in earnings per share (EPS) from RMB 19.48 to RMB 35.72 over the same period [3][19]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Ctrip Group are as follows: - 2023: RMB 44,562 million - 2024: RMB 53,377 million - 2025E: RMB 62,291 million - 2026E: RMB 71,022 million - 2027E: RMB 80,583 million - The company is expected to maintain a strong gross profit margin, with projections around 80.9% to 81.2% over the forecast period [3][19][20]. - The report anticipates a decline in net profit margin due to increased marketing expenses related to overseas brand promotion, with net profit margins expected to be around 25.9% in 2025 [7][19]. Market Performance - Ctrip Group's stock has shown a year-to-date decline of 14.44%, with a 52-week high of HKD 586.00 and a low of HKD 310.20 [6][8]. - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 297.57 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 9.92 million shares [6][8]. Future Outlook - The report projects that Ctrip Group will continue to benefit from the recovery in travel demand, particularly in outbound travel, which is expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels [7][8]. - The company is also expected to leverage operational efficiencies and advancements in AI to mitigate short-term profit margin pressures [7][8].