国内业绩稳健，海外延续高增 携程集团-S(9961) 携程集团 2025Q3 业绩点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.26 2025-11-27 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 本报告导读： 国内业绩稳健增长，海外延续份额和交易规模快速提升趋势。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 44,562 | 53,377 | 61,892 | 71,685 | 82,154 | | (+/-)% | 122.20% | 19.78% | 15.95% | 15.82% | 14.60% | | 经调整归母净利润 | 13,071 | 18,041 | 31,862 | 20,760 | 23,156 | | (+/-)% | 910.12% | 38.02% | 76.61% | -34.84% | 11.54% | | 经调整 EBITDA | 13,975 | 17,070 | 18,893 | ...

| 序号 名称 | | 港股代码 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | ADR代码 | ADR换算价 | 较港股升跌 | 较港股升跌% ADR; | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 腾讯控股 | (0) 00700 | 619.500 | -5.500 | -0.88% | TCEHY | 614.101 | -5.399 | -0.87% | 7 | | 2 | 阿里巴巴-W | 099888 | 154.800 | -3.000 | -1.90% | BABA | 153.233 | -1.567 | -1.01% | 15 | | 3 | 建设银行 | 00939 | 8.210 | -0.010 | -0.12% | CICHY | 8.218 | +0.008 | 0.10% | 2 | | 4 | 汇丰控股 | 00005 | 107.600 | +0.800 | 0.75% | HSBC | 109.799 | +2.199 | 2.04% | 7 | | 5 | 小米集团- ...

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with revenue growth driven by various business segments and a reduction in sales and marketing expenses, leading to an increase in profit forecasts and target price [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached Rmb 18.4 billion, representing a 16% year-over-year increase [1]. - Non-GAAP operating profit for the same period was Rmb 6.1 billion, exceeding expectations due to lower-than-expected sales and marketing expense ratios [1]. - The company raised its 2025 non-GAAP EPS forecast from Rmb 27.8 to Rmb 45.4, primarily due to investment gains from MakeMyTrip [1]. Business Segment Performance - Accommodation reservation revenue increased by 18% year-over-year [2]. - Transportation ticketing revenue grew by 12% [2]. - Packaged-tour revenue saw a 3% increase [2]. - Corporate travel revenue rose by 15% [2]. - Other business revenue surged by 34% [2]. - Overall reservations on the Trip.com brand increased by over 60% year-over-year, with inbound travel bookings more than doubling and outbound hotel and air ticket bookings up 140% compared to 2019 levels [2]. Market Outlook - The company maintains a Buy rating, reflecting optimism about its leading position in China's online travel industry and potential for market share growth internationally [3]. - The target price has been raised from HK$ 618 to HK$ 657, indicating a 21% upside [1].

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，维持携程集团-S(09961)"增持"评级，目标价733元港 币，国内增速稳健，海外延续高增长趋势，公司投资收益增加，持续扩大用户份额及影响力。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 业绩超预期 ①盈利润端表现延续一贯稳定的传统，毛利率同降主要为海外业务占比提升以及结构因素所致;。②从 25年开始，公司明显加大了Trip投入，也使得营销费用基本是按照此前预算消耗。该行认为，这与海外 市场部分目的地竞争对手加大投放有关。但上述营销投放也切实带来了海外Trip高速增长，且用户份额 快速提升的事实。因此，竞争将更多获取的是线下市场线上化的增量份额。③携程已延续多个季度利润 率持续提升，反映出竞争格局好，利润稳定性和确定性高，且海外进展相对顺利。 风险提示 经济波动影响商旅需求，海外竞争，出境目的地风险。 25Q3单季实现营收183.67亿元/+15.52%，经调整EBITDA63.46亿元/+11.73%，经调整营业利润61.34亿 元/+12.2%。因出售部分投资收益，因此归母净利润198.90亿元/+194.01%，经调整归母扣非净利润 191.56亿元/+221.25%。 商旅提 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in interest from major internet companies in user reviews and ratings is driven by the need to find new growth avenues in the service consumption era, as traditional e-commerce growth has plateaued [1][2] - Platforms like JD.com and Gaode are expanding their roles beyond traditional functions to become influential in consumer decision-making, particularly in the restaurant and entertainment sectors [1] - The competition for consumer attention is intensifying, with platforms aiming to create high-frequency touchpoints through review content [1] Industry Dynamics - The service consumption market remains robust, with significant demand for experiences such as dining and entertainment, which are often subjectively evaluated [1] - The introduction of new review platforms is seen as a way for businesses to connect directly with consumers, especially in a high marketing cost environment [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are generally receptive to multiple review channels, appreciating the opportunity to discover new places and potential discounts [2] - There is a growing skepticism towards "water reviews," with consumers preferring authentic experiences over generic positive reviews [2] Trust and Credibility - Trust is fundamental to the review ecosystem, with users relying on genuine feedback to guide their choices, while platforms must maintain impartiality to build credibility [2][3] - The challenge lies in balancing the dual role of platforms as both arbiters of authenticity and profit-driven entities, which can lead to conflicts of interest [2] Future Considerations - New entrants in the review space must focus on rebuilding trust mechanisms rather than merely replicating existing functionalities [3] - The long-term success of review platforms hinges on their ability to foster genuine interactions and maintain consumer trust, as losing credibility can undermine even the most attractive data and interfaces [3]

2025年6月18日，京东宣布进军酒旅行业。据称，"京东酒店PLUS会员计划"，享受最高三年0佣金。 刚刚过去的外卖大战，硝烟尚未散去，OTA行业又山雨欲来。美团"被撞了一下腰"，携程做好准备了 吗？ 远离疫情阴霾 2019年，营收357亿、同比增长15.2%； 2020年疫情影响，营收降至183亿，营收指数51（ 以2019年为基准 ）； 2021年、2022年营收徘徊在200亿，营收指数56； 作者｜Eastland 头图｜视觉中国 2025年11月18日，携程集团（ NASDAQ：TCOM；HK：09961 ）发布《2025年第三季度业绩公 告》。 2025年前三季，携程营收471亿、同比增长15.9%；净利润291亿、同比增长93.6%；其中，第三季度 净利润达199亿、比贵州茅台高3.6%（ 注茅台第三季净利润192亿 ）。 其实，Q3净利润爆表的原因是高达170亿的"其他收入"（ 主要来自出售印度酒旅OTA平台 MakeMyTrip约29%股权产生的收益 ）。 2023年，营收翻倍增至446亿、营收指数125； 2024年，营收534亿、营收数149； 2025年前三季，营收471亿，相当于201 ...

大型蓝筹股涨跌不一，汇丰控股收报108.109港元，较香港收市涨1.23%；腾讯控股收报622.043港元，较香港收市跌0.47%。 | .HSIADR 恒生指数ADR | | | --- | --- | | 25939.89 ↑ +45.34 +0.18% | 收盘价 11/25 16:00 美东 | | 三月日日 | | | 最高价 26014.67 开盘价 26014.67 成交量 6141.2万 | | | 最低价 25878.31 昨收价 25894.55 | 平均价 25946.49 | | 52周最高 27275.90上 涨 -- | 中国 | | 52周最低 18856.77下 跌 -- | 振 幅 0.53% | | 800000 恒牛指数 25894.55 +178.05 +0.69% | | 智通财经APP获悉，周二，美股三大指数集体收涨。恒生指数ADR上涨，按比例计算，收报25939.89点，较香港收市涨45.34或0.18%。 | 序号 名称 | | 港股代码 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | ADR代码 | ADR换算价 | 较港股升跌 | 较港股升跌% | ADR | | ...

《2024-2025年跨境旅游消费趋势研究报告》由世界旅游联盟、万事达卡与携程集团联合发布，基于详实消费数据与预订信息，聚焦全球旅游及中国出入境 旅游消费特征，揭示行业新趋势与发展机遇，为行业高质量发展提供参考。 全球旅游市场保持稳健增长态势。2025年上半年全球旅游出行人次同比增长11%，2024年旅游消费金额同比增长3.9%，体验型出游成为核心驱动力，体育 赛事与娱乐演出的拉动效应显著，如2024年棒球世界大赛、欧冠决赛周边跨境消费同比大幅增长。热门目的地呈现区域分化，法国、西班牙、美国位居 2024年国际游客接待量前三，中国内地（含港澳台）接待入境游客约1.32亿人次，排名全球第一；汇率波动对入境游客量有明显影响，目的地货币贬值往往 能带动游客增长。 中国出境游持续升温且呈现多元特征。出境游人次与消费金额稳步增长，周边短途目的地与小众目的地增速领先，签证政策优化、国际航线恢复及文体活 动带动是主要推动力。游客结构分化明显：Z世代依赖数字化工具，偏好"说走就走"的性价比之旅与社交媒体打卡体验；亲子家庭注重安全与教育价值，青 睐免签目的地与主题游线路；银发族偏好长线深度游，重视健康安全与专业讲解服务。消费结 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the social services industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - The social services sector is showing resilience during the off-peak season, supported by fundamental data and a shift in funding styles, creating conditions for relative returns across industries [4]. - Key areas of focus include mid-cap blue-chip characteristics, growth potential, and recovery prospects in performance, particularly in OTA, hotels, human resources, and select dining and scenic spots [4]. Summary by Sections Hotels - The hotel sector demonstrates strong fundamentals with a recovery in performance. Huazhu reported a revenue of 7 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, surpassing previous growth guidance [8]. - The national hotel RevPAR turned positive in October 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, indicating a stable volume and rising prices [8]. Scenic Spots - The demand for scenic spots remains robust due to the autumn holiday and the upcoming winter season, with double-digit growth in visitor numbers reported [8]. - For instance, the Jianmen Pass scenic area saw a 30% increase in visitors during the autumn holiday, and hotel bookings in Zhejiang rose by 68% [8]. Duty-Free - The duty-free shopping scene in Hainan is recovering, with sales reaching 506 million yuan from November 1-7, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.86% [8]. - This recovery is attributed to low base effects, new policies, and promotional activities, alongside a shift in consumer behavior due to international travel restrictions [8]. OTA (Online Travel Agencies) - Ctrip's Q3 2025 report showed a net operating income of 18.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 16% [8]. - The international OTA orders grew by about 60%, with inbound travel orders doubling, indicating a strong recovery in domestic travel demand [8].

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月25日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-11-24 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3836.76 | 12585.08 | 4448.04 | 13630.96 | 3659.77 | 1296.60 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.04 | 0.37 | -0.12 | 0.79 | 1.30 | 0.83 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7155.39 | 10122.34 | 4258.07 | 3474.06 | 4762.16 | 508.27 | 晨会主题 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观快评:9 月非农数据点评-迟来的指引，摇摆的降息 行业与公司 社服行业专题:连锁餐饮 11 月跟踪：推荐火锅产业链龙头 非银行业快评:近期证券业并购对行业长期影响分析-券业整合 2.0 开 启，行业长期格局优化 家电行业周报（25 年第 47 周）：10 月家电内外销表现承压， ...