绝味食品：品牌焕新，蓄势待发

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-B" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next 6 months with expected investment returns leading the CSI 300 Index by more than 15% [22][53] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from brand renewal and marketing activities, including the appointment of a new global brand ambassador and Olympic-related promotions, which are likely to boost sales in the short term [9][47] - The company's strategy for 2024 focuses on optimizing store operations and improving single-store performance, shifting from rapid expansion to a more refined approach [21] - Long-term growth is supported by the company's efforts to build a "food ecosystem" through new projects and investments in the food and beverage sector [21] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 7.236 billion yuan in 2024 to 8.902 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 10.4% and 11.4% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [22][52] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 649 million yuan in 2024 to 910 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 19% and 18% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [22][52] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 14x in 2024 to 10x in 2026, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [14][22] Business Breakdown - The company's main business, leisure braised food sales, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% and 10% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, driven by store optimization and improved single-store performance [48] - Franchise management revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.9% and 5.8% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a slight decline in 2024 due to store adjustments [11] - Other main businesses, including modern agriculture and supply chain services, are expected to grow at a CAGR of 20% in both 2025 and 2026 [36] Comparable Company Valuation - The company's valuation is relatively low compared to peers, with a 2024 PE ratio of 14x, lower than the average of 18x for comparable companies [14][28] - The company's PE ratio is at the 5th percentile of its historical range since 2017, indicating a historically low valuation [14] Profitability and Growth - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 24.8% in 2023 to 29% in 2026, driven by cost control and scale effects [48][52] - Net profit margin is projected to increase from 4.7% in 2023 to 10.2% in 2026, reflecting improved operational efficiency [52] - ROE is expected to rise from 4.6% in 2023 to 10.9% in 2026, indicating stronger profitability and capital utilization [52]