康缘药业：上半年高基数业绩承压，规范背景下有望长期健康发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of the year, with a revenue of 2.26 billion (-11.49%) and a net profit of 265 million (-3.73%). The second quarter saw a more significant drop, with revenue at 901 million (-24.98%) and net profit at 117 million (-12.59%) [1]. - Despite the current performance pressures, the company is expected to achieve long-term healthy development due to its ongoing innovation in traditional Chinese medicine and a robust product pipeline [1]. - The company has set ambitious growth targets for 2024, aiming for a revenue growth rate of no less than 18% and a net profit growth rate of no less than 20% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 4.87 billion, with projected revenues of 5.75 billion, 6.58 billion, and 7.64 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 18%, 14%, and 16% [4]. - The net profit for 2023 was 537 million, with forecasts of 663 million, 793 million, and 957 million for the following three years, indicating growth rates of 23%, 20%, and 21% [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.92 in 2023 to 1.64 by 2026 [4]. Product Development and Innovation - The company is actively developing new products, with three new traditional Chinese medicine products submitted for NDA and two completing phase III clinical trials [1]. - The company has also received clinical trial approval for several new drugs, indicating a strong commitment to innovation and product diversification [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, particularly increasing the revenue share from non-injection products, as part of its long-term strategy [1]. - The company’s stock performance is expected to outperform the market, supported by its innovative capabilities and improving marketing system [1].