XGIMI(SH:688696) GF SECURITIES·2024-07-29 03:01Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, with a target price of 65.41 CNY per share based on a 25x PE ratio for 2024 [7][2]. Core Views - The company is expected to recover quickly from its current operational downturn, with projected net profits of 183 million CNY, 384 million CNY, and 489 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 52.0%, 109.7%, and 27.3% [2][5]. - The sales gross margin has declined due to inventory issues, but improvements are anticipated as old products are phased out and new products gain market share [2][19]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at 3.662 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 3.0% compared to 2023 [5]. - The company's EBITDA is projected to be 251 million CNY in 2024, with a significant recovery expected in subsequent years [5]. - The net profit margin is under pressure, but product structure optimization is expected to enhance profitability in the future [19][2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.62 CNY in 2024, increasing to 5.49 CNY in 2025 and 6.99 CNY in 2026 [5][2]. Market Performance - The overall smart projection industry is facing challenges, with the market for products priced below 2000 CNY showing growth, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards more affordable options [19]. - The company has launched several new products priced under 2000 CNY, including the RS 10 series and the PLAY5, which are expected to drive sales [19][2]. - The company is expanding its overseas presence, with a growing share of revenue coming from international markets [19][2].