TENCENT(00700) 东方证券·2024-07-29 03:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 397.82 (RMB 363.51, HKD/RMB=0.91) [4][5] Core Views - Tencent's WeChat Live E-commerce has undergone significant organizational changes, including the addition of new features like "Shop Share Assistants" and new tools like "Quanyutong" for e-commerce traffic, with a potential GMV ceiling of 3.6 trillion RMB [3] - Private domain GMV is expected to reach 1.3 trillion RMB, driven by the conversion of existing mini-program merchants (800 billion RMB) and the incremental GMV from Shop Share Assistants (480 billion RMB) [3] - Public domain GMV is projected at 2.4 trillion RMB, with 280 billion RMB from朋友圈广告推流 and 2.07 trillion RMB from video号推流 [3] - Video号 DAU is expected to reach 680 million, driven by 186 million content creators, with average user time on the platform estimated at 80 minutes [3] - Video号's e-commerce is expected to enter a rapid growth phase starting in 2024, with IFRS net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 170.8 billion, 196.9 billion, and 226.5 billion RMB, respectively [4] Financial Projections - Revenue growth is expected to accelerate, with 2024-2026 revenue forecasts at 685.02 billion, 774.44 billion, and 840.91 billion RMB, respectively [11] - Operating profit is projected to grow significantly, with 2024-2026 forecasts at 222.3 billion, 264.62 billion, and 304.98 billion RMB, respectively [11] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rebound, with 2024-2026 forecasts at 170.82 billion, 196.87 billion, and 226.49 billion RMB, respectively [11] E-commerce Growth Drivers - The integration of WeChat Live E-commerce with mini-programs and公众号 is expected to accelerate GMV conversion, with a potential conversion ceiling of 800 billion RMB [3][54] - The Shop Share Assistant feature is expected to bring incremental GMV of 480 billion RMB, leveraging social裂变 and联盟模式 [3][36] - Video号's e-commerce growth is driven by its unique content ecosystem, with a focus on non-entertainment content, which is expected to account for 77% of public domain traffic [3][27] Content Ecosystem - Video号's content creators are primarily sourced from公众号 (17%), Douyin (26%), and Kuaishou (21%), with the remaining 36% coming from other platforms [88] - The platform's content is skewed towards严肃向 content, with泛生活,泛娱乐,泛资讯, and泛知识 categories expected to account for 65%, 17%, 1%, and 17% of content, respectively [162] - Video号's DAU is expected to grow to 680 million, driven by 186 million content creators, with a focus on泛生活 and泛知识 content [107][108] Market Positioning - Video号's e-commerce is positioned differently from Douyin and Kuaishou, leveraging WeChat's私域流量 and公域流量 to create a unique ecosystem [3][25] - The platform's直播加载率 is expected to be lower than Douyin's, at 8.4%, with a steady-state成交单价 of 125 RMB,介于抖快之间 [3][27]